TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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Yeah the 10:1 is near a carbon copy
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For Chatt folks...you can always drive south to Ft. Payne. HUN went 2"-4" there lol.
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Just from a global op stand point...it's running 3hr increments vs 6hr. Timing of the DGZ drying will play a big role in the final totals. Wondering if it's able to time it up better?
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And anytime you get within 36, and one goes out on an island (regardless of it hurts or helps mby or idea)...toss. and once either the others start moving toward it or it reverses...and it back to the rotation.
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I usually don't weigh anything until 72 hrs out...beyond that, it's more just looking at 500 trends. 72-36...I use 35% Euro, 35% GFS, 10% CMC/Ukie/ICON..everyone gets a piece of the puzzle. 36-12..NAM replaces GFS, RGEM replaces Euro...10% GFS/Euro/ICON. Under 12...Nam 3k, HRRR, RGEM, RAP...equal weight.
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I've always joking said they have a bias...but that AFD, they basically openly admitted it for first time I've can remember.
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NWS don't really use it in weighting a forecast. I give it 10% weight with my own formula.
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To me MRX broke the cardinal rule...if you have a drastic outlier that has zero support...simple toss it. You don't include it in your package or totals. Better hope they are close to right, or once again going to look like fools to general public. Especially south of 40. As far as the DGZ, that's been showing for several days now.
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Birmingham pulls trigger on Warning..1-3
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Upgrade to warning OHX.... 3-6
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So spent last hour going frame by frame thru the soundings for each model (except NAM, just cause it's an outlier as right now)...and I had to give a prediction for the southern valley..."3-6" with the last few hours ending as freezing drizzle.. .05"-.10"...just enough to glaze the top. Frz drizzle caused by DGZ drying out.
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Think what NAM shows is how razor thin this system is...any slight amping will throw a wrench into. But learned over the couple decades, if you want snow in the southern valley, you have to ride that razors edge...(most ends in heartbreak, but every now and then....)
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Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates.
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Don't think this one plays out that way...axis maybe, but the LP rode just the right angle to give the bird to the foothills tucked up against the mountains.
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Questions I have about the system are: 1) How quickly can the column moisten? (Virga Monster eating initial QPF) 2) exact path of the trowal feature? If it passes to the west, East gets into the dry slot coming from SW. (Think middle/west TN are OK there). Column starts drying quickly, Def could be some mixing concerns as DGZ dries out. 3) Does any other model have the amping compared to the NAM? (Still TBD)
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Think they covered everything in the updated watch.....2-4 up to 6..with snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain...yep they fit everything to be covered in it lol.
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Anything outside of 24hr on short range models..12hr on hrrr, take with a grain of salt verbatim. Used for trends outside that range, but are lightly weighted. Global Ops still have the weight until the 24-36hr range.
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Can picture in my head...MRX this morning: "OK, who let the new guy write the overnight AFD? Now we gotta walk this thing back."
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Gulf storms would be about the orientation of the storm line...if it's west-east, it will impede the flow..if it's more north south, it can sometimes aid in moisture transport.
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For those in the southern valley, while there is every the slightest warm nose...it barely breaks the 0 line and only for a brief distance. Think for that run you could tack another 1-2 on the totals for Sharpy reading too much into it. Looks more like a wet snow sounding imo.
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12z NAM is a hard pass for me lol. Definitive warm nose moving up the valley...but NAM likes to overamp, hopefully case here.
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"In my experience, I have often seen these synoptically-driven events over perform the model snow amounts, and given the expected thermodynamic profiles and QG forcing, snowfall rates could be quite heavy at times. Amounts above the forecast range would not be surprising, but we are still over 48 hours from the start of the event, with plenty of time to fine tune the amounts." Almost fell outta my bed lol
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Just woke up and kinda surprised...figured MRX would hold until 12z runs at earliest. Also happy to see RGEM loaded...know it struggled somewhat this last storm but ice usually isn't it's thing. One of my favorite models in winter for MBY, just seems to do a decent job here usually.
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Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue.
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Goofy nailing central AL...that's new
