TellicoWx

Think right now we are in no man's land..3 hr increments on the globals isn't helping at the key moments the front comes down into the valley and we are too far out for the hi res mess models. Add in the DGZ being in a very uncommon place, and we get this result. May honestly not know one way or the other on the valley until the event is almost on top of the area.

Can still see some of the resolution problems

As much as I love snow..I really feel for you guys out that way if the GFS score the coup.

GFS just Nam'd plateau/west lol

RGEM took a baby step forward plateau/west

Freezing drizzle causing alot of problems on Kansas DOT map (Purple is reporting ice covered)

Keep thinking back to the Birmingham Snowmaggedon (one where Span had to walk to work cause he forecasted no problems and 1/2" of snow or so brought Birmingham to a standstill)

Wouldn't be surprised SREF looked a tad better when I did a quick glance.

Agree..honestly don't think any modeling had a handle on this thing good or bad (based off what's currently going on out west and the bad misses out that way). With the system being so anomalous, don't think the coding is equipped for it. Ex. how often do we see the DGZ sitting on the ground in this region?

According to NWS Boulder, the interstate almost instantly froze over...most areas reporting 1"-2". If CODOT can't handle an inch or two, doesn't bode well for TDOT (assuming models are close to correct on plateau/west).

Considering the front range of the Rockies is prone to wild temp swings...this is remarkable. Fastest 1 HR temp drop ever recorded at Denver International.

Wild videos being posted of this fropa going thru Denver...people reporting what appeared to be a frozen haboob (sky cams back up the reports). 30-40° temp drops in 30 mins.

Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Areas affected...southern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northern Colorado Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 212115Z - 220015Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls will persist into the evening across portions of the central Rockies and central High Plains. DISCUSSION...A very strong arctic front continues to move south across the central High Plains with temperature gradients of 40-50F along the front. Several bands of snow have developed near the vicinity of this front with moderate to heavy snow being observed. In addition, winds are very strong with 30-40 knot winds both north and south of the front with observed gusts in excess of 50 knots. These winds, combined with multiple bands of snow have led to snow squall conditions across much of Wyoming and southwest South Dakota this afternoon. These conditions continue to shift south with the surface front. Observed visibility restrictions have been greatest north of the front, likely due to drier snow amid temperatures in the -10 to -20F range and 30+ kt sustained winds. In fact, blizzard conditions have been observed at 8 ASOS/AWOS sites across Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska in the past 2 hours. Expect similar conditions to spread into northern Colorado this evening.

A little nowcasting out west vs modeled....Globals are underperforming vs meso models for North Nebraska. Currently snow squall warning (GFS had 1/2"). Reality...

MRX upgrades entire area to Windchill Warning: WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 10 to 20 below zero lower elevations, and as low as 25 to 35 below zero at the higher elevations. * WHERE...Southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts Thursday night through Friday are expected to be between 30 and 50 mph. Winds this strong may result in downed trees and power lines, which may cause power outages while temperatures are extremely cold.

Also have to take into account the downsloping off the plateau. For east Tennessee area, the only places i look to have anything of possible significance is the plateau and east of Hwy 411 toward the foothills/mountains.

Kentucky Gov. advising people to get to where they are going by Thurs afternoon and plan to stay there until Mon possibly.

State of Emergencys going up in KY and NC..expect others will follow suit in the south

This is more worrisome to me than any of the snow. When MRX talks about historic, this is what they are referring to imo. Yeah it gets below zero plenty times in the past several years, but that's with snow pack and radiational cooling on light winds. Not so common to go below zero plus 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50.

3k looks 100x better west of the plateau

For a sliver of hope...GEFS mean actually had a nice little increase for the eastern valley

CMC at 12z vz 00z....feel like the announcer off movie Major League..."juuussst a bit outside" lol.

One more step back on the models and all TN will be out of play (except the normal NWSF areas of plateau/mtns). GFS cave to the Euro/CMC almost complete.

GFS = Grinch Fools Snowlovers lol