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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    Jumped the storm SE again, as you guys have said over the past couple days or so, seems to be something this winter to that. With those lofty numbers shown just across the MS river last few days of runs, it will be interesting to see if west TN starts getting into the game for anything within 150 hrs.
  2. TellicoWx
    Creamsicle is back on the 12z GEFS lol
  3. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS looks alot better thru the ext (run not complete quite yet), especially for the central and west TN folks. Instead of one storm skewing the mean and the rest kinda of blah, almost each member has some for of storm/s. One member even pushes 2"-4" right to the gulf/FL panhandle area. When ensembles start getting into the 4"-5" means (west/central TN), usually something is coming
  4. TellicoWx
    Probably should be in banter, but noticed a large jump in the 00z GEFS overall run mean..so piqued my interest. And there it was, Member 8 aka The TN Mauler. One member jumped the entire mean 2+ inches (pegs out COD's accum chart)
  5. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS screams model chaos after the first system...will be very hard for it to determine where/how to interact with this many lows parading across the country.
  6. TellicoWx
    Have to get the 1st system out of the way, but if the GFS can consolidate the energy with the southern piece of energy like the CMC, then the 2nd system could get very interesting.
  7. TellicoWx
    00z CMC looking better for the next system
  8. TellicoWx
    Yep, and the Southern Jet stays active even then...would be a great potential setup.
  9. TellicoWx
    Seems to always be the big fly in the ointment on these setups. 12z CMC is a great visual for seeing how much of a difference they can make...system #1 (GL Low) valley struggles at lower levels...system #2 (HP over the top) slider with better thermals.
  10. TellicoWx
    Something to keep an eye on for the next potential system, especially with marginal temps...the strength and placement of any Great Lakes Low.
  11. TellicoWx
  12. TellicoWx
    2nd Tornado Emergency..north of the 1st one
  13. TellicoWx
    Yeah wouldn't be surprised if this a late bloomer as a weak lee side low tries to develop up the spine of the Apps. Anyone East of I75 above 2000' (1500' north of I40) may be in for a surprise.
  14. TellicoWx
    09z Plumes showing some crazy members for TYS
  15. TellicoWx
    First thought that went thru my head on that 18z run...Goofy just looks off more than usual. This whole setup is just screaming ice west of the plateau to me, across all 3 models.
  16. TellicoWx
    Cmc had been very consistent honking big Ice along the MS. Apparently pivotal needs to expand their ice map range lol
  17. TellicoWx
    If you ever wonder what the perfect setup is here in the upper south...Goofy just showed it. 1060+ HP crashing into the Midwest generating a LP on the leading edge...HP setting up far enough south over the OH valley to funnel/anchor the cold down both sides of the Apps (almost like a double CAD)..and an active STJ attacking the retreating HP.
  18. TellicoWx
    Nothing like 2" of freezing rain and a foot of snow...Goofy rides again
  19. TellicoWx
    Definitely going into the Happy Hour Hall of Fame lol
  20. TellicoWx
    Big 1060 HP unleashed artic that run
  21. TellicoWx
    What lights from Pensacola to Atlanta lol
  22. TellicoWx
    When a CAM model (0z HRRR) streaks this heavily almost into Gwinnet Co, GA at that range...definitely peaks my attention level lol.
  23. TellicoWx
    Something noticed on the models last few runs, (outside the Cherohala Skyway, Monroe Co usually doesn't do well in NW flow events..so haven't been following that closely). The Euro/Canadian/RGEM usually pick up on the elevation change fairly well and don't show much for Tellico/Sweetwater/Athens area, but this event they have the 1" line creeping into those areas. Highly unusual, and something to keep an eye on. If they are picking up on something, may be a surprise bust high in the central valley even.
  24. TellicoWx
    Flurries still....2"
  25. TellicoWx
    Got moderate snow still...my guess is will be close to 2" by time it wraps up here.
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