TellicoWx

RGEM may outdo the 6z

While Hi-Res is the way to go..globals painting swaths like the 6z ICON and GFS has done..I would not be surprised if a couple Hi Res don't go full bonkers in the next couple runs today.

GFS about to unload on the valley

Think it's more of an algorithm issue...some models struggle a little more than others with high terrain features as far as exact locations. Rockies are a prime example, resolution is almost non existent there.

Looking at the 6z runs so far, think they are right. You can almost trace the spine of the Apps from WV thru TN with the accum maps.

6z ICON upping totals

6z RGEM joins the HRRR

Looks like the NAM got the boot from NWS offices

Hun: 2-5....OHX 3-6

MRX entire CWA warning...3-6, except Polk and Bledsoe 2-4 Edit...Hamilton 2-4 (some reason has its own message)

MRX, OHX, HUN pull trigger..Warnings out

FFC: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 314 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 GAZ001>003-142000- /O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0001.240115T1200Z-240116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.240115T1200Z-240116T1200Z/ Dade-Walker-Catoosa- 314 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Dade, Walker and Catoosa Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warnings about to roll out..FFC issued for NW corner of GA

6z HRRR..and still has quite finished up and end of the run

Pops a Lee Side Low that enhances the precip

6z HRRR smoking the valley/foothills

MEG updated theirs with the warning...still waiting on MRX and OHX

Don't know what the met of wvlt is watching but lmao

It's a lie...anything that has me in or near bullseye is false lol

Same streak on 0z HRRR..south side is down near MS border...hence plays out with a more southern solution

As the NAM plays out, it takes the jet more to the half moon look in KY...hence the valley doesn't end up like the other modeling.

You wanna be near and just to the south side of the yellow basically

18z vs 00z NAM 700mb wind (jet streak)

A second streak should enter from the south...NAM has been taking it due north almost...everyone else brings it up in a NE direction...that makes or breaks the eastern valley

Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run