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ILoveWinter

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Everything posted by ILoveWinter

  1. This much pessimism after a bad run by one model at 18z 4 days out from the event? Way too early for that! (or being overly optimistic for that matter)
  2. Yea tracking all the different model runs ahead of a potential snow storm is 50% of why I enjoy them lol. Though living in NYC, it usually ends in disappointment!
  3. 4-8 in the immediate NYC metro would be amazing considering the garbage we've experience in the past few years but yes in the wider context I agree.
  4. I'm no expert but I wouldn't say the models are not credible now, only that both the passage of time and tonights storm will of course make things clearer.
  5. Yea we really should only be looking at ensemble means at this early juncture. No use getting overly excited or upset over Ops runs 5-6 days out, especially as we wait for the friday night storm to clear out before we get a better picture of the finer details.
  6. How did EPS look? Prob better to look at ensembles vs any op run at this juncture
  7. Good trends today - especially for those north and west but within the City itself, borderline temps will not cut it for anything but wet roads and some slushy accumulation on grass. Hopefully the trend continues. Taking this NAM run with a grain of salt though it's definitely pretty to look at!
  8. Yea this is my approach now, better for my snow loving sanity
  9. lol, you were weenied for posting your temp!
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