I know we've talked about this many times but that CPK figure is approx. 1.5-2 inches below what it should be. Not a huge error but material nonetheless.
The immediate metro and North/East is fairly often on the wrong side of these pesky backdoors, just terrible if you ask me. I am done with these raw, chilly April days!
Yea agree! Those "shock to the system" easterly flow/back doors get progressively more irritating as spring rolls on. It's still mid March so it hasn't driven me crazy just yet, lol.
It's true that this may not amount to much snow wise in the immediate metro but it wouldn't be because you were right. It's much easier to be a warm weenie and claim a forecast victory in this area as things more often than not don't work out for us in the snow department, espec in March.
National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.
Yea those back doors can be a rude awakening after a few nice days in a row. The worst is when the front stalls out 50 miles south so that Philly and DC are basking while we shiver!
As for us that live near the urban core: from experience, with borderline temps in March (espec if this is during the day) it REALLY needs to come down in order for snow to accumulate.
Yea I'd agree as living in Manhattan for the past 8 years or so, temps cannot be marginal in order for the snow to sufficiently stick (outside of grassy areas though even there this is true to a point). Ideally, CPK should be at 30 or below.
Did you ask yourself these questions when you were harping on the early Feb torch due to the MJO forecast? The models have been rushing pattern changes for a while now...