ILoveWinter

I agree, the gradient was remarkable. I was in the upper east side visiting someone when the front came through and within a few minutes there was a 20 degree difference between where I was and my apartment in the upper west side.

Newark is down to around 55, temp collapsed in the past 20 or so minutes.

Nearly a 30 degree difference between the upper east and upper west side in manhattan, crazy

Agree, will take temps in the 80s vs cool and damp, especially considering it’s on a Saturday.

It's crazy that CPK almost nickled and dimed its seasonal snow to DC's considering those nice events they had this winter (and LGA even has more)

Was the GFS and EAI more accurate because it handled that lobe in the west and the confluence better or was it for other reasons? Wondering if they did better by pure luck or not.

Not a biggie or anything but verbatim would be the biggest event of the season for the immediate metro (sad but true). Hopefully this trends further!

I’m generally not thrown off by the movement of op runs 4 or 5+ days out but the agreement with many of the ensembles at 12z was a bit concerning. Plenty of time though, and no reason to panic.

Agreed, had hoped it was a fluke ops run thing that would be countered by the EPS mean.

Let’s just wait for the ensembles/EPS, op runs are prone to volatility this far out

Verbatim that ICON run was a borderline BECS (to me 30+ puts us within the range in our area). That’s why it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible!)

Yea mostly earlier in the day, still was well below expectations

Honestly tho it’s not even a sure thing even as the storm is upon us…Jan 2015 still gives me nightmares! That being said this has some tremendous potential and will admit I’m excited.

Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news.

Op runs this far out will always be more volatile. Ensemble means are the way.