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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
  2. brooklynwx99
    LOL i think this thread is held to a bit higher standard when discussing the synoptics
  3. brooklynwx99
    given the taller +PNA spike towards the 21-22, I think the wave on the 19-20 likely gets more and more washed out. the CMC is a good example of that
  4. brooklynwx99
    we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities
  5. brooklynwx99
    not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort
  6. brooklynwx99
    it’s there, just south of the Mason-Dixon line
  7. brooklynwx99
    also seeing favorable trends out west for the Christmas timeframe could be a seasonal trend to underdo western ridging
  8. brooklynwx99
    pretty major change
  9. brooklynwx99
    i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se
  10. brooklynwx99
    near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada
  11. brooklynwx99
    near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada
  12. brooklynwx99
    like this is the exact shift you want
  13. brooklynwx99
    EPS also has a taller PNA and more favorable trough axis for the trailing energy
  14. brooklynwx99
    i think the main way to win here is for the first wave to establish a colder airmass and for the second one to buckle into the colder airmass with fresh HP in SE Canada if, of course, there are actually two distinct waves
  15. brooklynwx99
    i don't think one could draw up a more ideal +PNA
  16. brooklynwx99
    this will do it. that +PNA is bonkers
  17. brooklynwx99
    good enough. anywhere in that general vicinity usually puts the trough axis in a good spot
  18. brooklynwx99
    LOL i thought you meant the ridge. i was like "really? it's in a perfect spot"
  19. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  20. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  21. brooklynwx99
    EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well
  22. brooklynwx99
    front end thump
  23. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC
  24. brooklynwx99
    notice how the Pacific trough has been trending more equatorward with more AK ridging
  25. brooklynwx99
    you often need a strong Pacific trough to get a tall ridge like that. can't have one without the other the trough will knock the ridge down after it builds... there's always some needle threading with these kinds of setups
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