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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is closer to an actual coastal than 00z, just too sloppy
  2. brooklynwx99
    I don't see that at all... there's strong HP over the top as the coastal takes shape. this looks like snow or bust with the evolution on the 12z GFS / CMC
  3. brooklynwx99
    PNA is so much more meridional over southern Canada... even though it's just as strong, per se, it's functionally improved
  4. brooklynwx99
    what an improvement here
  5. brooklynwx99
    much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
  6. brooklynwx99
    much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled
  7. brooklynwx99
    i'd also much rather want amplification of a strong vort into a cold airmass rather than praying for a system to trend weaker in a marginal one. the former happens all the time while the latter is quite rare. we've dealt with the latter a lot over the last couple of years lmao
  8. brooklynwx99
    like lol this is SO much better
  9. brooklynwx99
    like that is a wholesale change. much easier to get a ripping S/W south of you instead of depending on some massive TPV buckle like 12/18z yesterday
  10. brooklynwx99
    GFS and CMC both really amped up the second vort
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the ridge amplitude lessening is kinda making this more difficult. we’ll see if it corrects back or if it’s more of a definite trend downwards today
  12. brooklynwx99
    GFS had the same idea, didn't buckle in time. it's a day 8 OP run
  13. brooklynwx99
    also the more significant +PNA occurs on the 20-21st which encourages a larger wave anyway. you're talking about another standard deviation
  14. brooklynwx99
    since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim
  15. brooklynwx99
    and the result...
  16. brooklynwx99
    first wave continues to crap out on the GFS. should lead to better spacing this run
  17. brooklynwx99
    part of the reason why this subforum has gotten so quiet IMO
  18. brooklynwx99
    very strong ridging will encourage some kind of low pressure (potentially strong) somewhere over the E US. not sure how the first wave will impact the second as the ridge in the west builds, but models are beginning to key in one the second one more and weaken the first a bit. the pattern is favorable for some kind of coastal. the jury is out on how and where a storm forms (if one even does)
  19. brooklynwx99
    i'm prepared for this exact outcome lmao but we'll see how it pans out
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah the wave spacing on the ECMWF ruins it verbatim. seems like models today are keying in more on the second wave rather than the first so we'll see if it continues
  21. brooklynwx99
    like lol this is nasty
  22. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF has a more progressive first wave and a hellacious vort pass for the second wave. more similar to the CMC than GFS
  23. brooklynwx99
    verbatim it's a version of late Feb 2010 that even fucks over NYC (sorry)
  24. brooklynwx99
    that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials
  25. brooklynwx99
    can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave
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