brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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base of the trough is more consolidated
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NAM definitely upped its involvement of the trailing energy this run. going to have to keep an eye on this feature
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too bad this model fucking blows
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yeah, trough is notably sharper
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the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift
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anyway, the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift. though I think for any notable snow, you'll need an IVT
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you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged
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extended guidance like that often overdoes the influence of ENSO. we saw that last year. given the ample momentum in the Pacific jet so far I wouldn't resign myself to thinking that we're going to see a canonical -ENSO Feb... nothing about the current or upcoming pattern is canonical
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pretty obvious trend that's coinciding with the more favorable PNA
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euro makes the same improvements with the PNA
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@Typhoon Tip heights downstream of the vort max are actually buckling this run as you were talking about earlier
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better wave spacing and taller PNA, more consolidated vort on the GEFS
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PNA really making a comeback
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favorable changes on the GFS. taller PNA, sharper vort, and higher downstream heights
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yeah the issue is that it sucks
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yeah this is an actual improvement with the PNA. RGEM also has a taller western ridge
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wave spacing masterclass. at this point it's just the universe spinning the wheel and fucking us
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they look good. the context is different from last year, though. this isn't a super Nino so we aren't going to see a raging Pacific jet all year
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seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7
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uncalled for
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the random uptick at 06z on the EPS before the massive kick in the balls is almost comical. it's like the models have been engineered for max pain
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meh i'm bored dude. might as well see what this thing does
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like lol this is a significant shift
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UKMET is backed far west with the trough. seems like the only model that's gotten crappier so far is the GFS
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meanwhile, the trailing vort actually helps things out on the CMC. it's better than 00z
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