brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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as long as the flow is coming out of northern Canada and the Arctic, it can be as warm as it wants up there. usually Canada being ice cold means that the colder air is bottled up instead of being displaced to our latitude
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i mean, with the decaying block, -EPO, and even some split flow, could be a larger storm in early Jan seems like the block is actually useful with all of the negative anomalies in the N Atl. resembles a Modoki Nino pattern honestly
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this is what you want to see for legit snow opportunities in early Jan
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jesus
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i think it has issues with precip smoothing. makes sense -
near normal is fine in early Jan
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also it wouldn't be shocking if the later weeks of the Euro Weeklies were just reverting to -ENSO climo. frankly, we haven't seen much of a canonical Nina pattern at all and aren't going to for the next two weeks at least. i don't see how one can resign to typical -ENSO climo into late Jan. sure, it'll likely get a bit warmer but a persistent SE ridge is not a given they did the same exact thing last year reverting to +ENSO climo with an Aleutian low and -NAO that never really happened
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lol this is a British Columbia weather weenie tweeting the CFS Control. if this was JB doing the same thing you'd lose it
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there was a HECS in Feb 2021 that just missed you guys to the north
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if you advert anomalously warm air up towards Greenland, it can act like a block. nature doesn’t care why heights are high over the Davis Strait as long as they are it wouldn’t be the 1-2nd that you’d see a storm risk, it would be more like the 3-6th as the -EPO brings in colder air and the high heights over northern Canada weaken
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you're getting colder air filtering under the block. wouldn't take all that long with a -EPO. the first system around NYD is likely too warm, though any follow up as the block decays could be larger. we'll see. I just like seeing the -EPO/-NAO developing
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omfg
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quite the signal. funny how the torch just gets advected to the Davis Strait lmao
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lol this would be something
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welp. CP Nino?
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if the SREFs weren’t literally the worst i’d be more inclined to believe them
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weaker energy over the SE likely made a difference
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yup, looking like good agreement on WAA into a great antecedent airmass
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i've stopped bothering, honestly. if there's La Nina influence, it's warm. but if there's lingering El Nino influence, it also makes it warm. Pacific jet extension? you guessed it, warm. but if we see the jet retract? well, that's just the La Nina base state warming us up again
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lol relax i just thought it was funny after all of the hyped up analysis. nothing personal
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much stronger trailing vort on the CMC too
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lol GFS is definitely going to be more amped up
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wow, you're getting actual PVA now
