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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    @psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big
  2. brooklynwx99
    yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah this is the timeframe I like for a larger snow event... very cold airmass has been established with a potent -EPO, there's a N ATL dipole with lots of confluence in the 50/50 region, and split flow. the STJ undercutting is something out of the Modoki Nino handbook too
  4. brooklynwx99
    I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat
  5. brooklynwx99
    EPS is actually trending better, somehow
  6. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
  7. brooklynwx99
    well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW
  8. brooklynwx99
    about 3.1” in Morristown! what a nice little event can’t ask for more in late December
  9. brooklynwx99
    indeed. it’s been a long time. got about 2” in Morristown
  10. brooklynwx99
    the vort moving through over the next 6-12 hours should spark some decent snow over NNJ. likely some coatings up to 1-2”
  11. brooklynwx99
    can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it’s a very open flow… ripe for amplification. the block is actually doing its job too with the clogged up N ATL
  13. brooklynwx99
    fantabulous, actually
  14. brooklynwx99
    it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us
  15. brooklynwx99
    you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced
  16. brooklynwx99
    the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics
  17. brooklynwx99
    big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day
  18. brooklynwx99
    would be hilarious if we got the Modoki pattern during a La Nina. open STJ and everything
  19. brooklynwx99
    GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow
  20. brooklynwx99
    they are showing that for like 24-48 hours. do you think that will be an issue after the 3-5th? honest question
  21. brooklynwx99
    by the way, the Pacific jet actually trended weaker for early Jan, not stronger. it was significantly stronger a few days ago
  22. brooklynwx99
    also, if the Pacific jet is also going to be stronger than forecast for much of the winter, wouldn't that mean that the retraction on the extended guidance for late Jan into Feb is overdone, shifting the prospective Aleutian ridge more into AK and the WC, leading to a colder E US pattern? but nobody is using that logic in that fashion for whatever reason
  23. brooklynwx99
    also, just logically speaking, in order for us to go from the overextended jet like we have now to the supposed retracted jet SE ridge pattern in late Jan that some are advertising, there HAS to be a period where the jet is in a favorable position for WC and AK ridging and a mean trough in the east. the jet can't just magically hop from one place to the other
  24. brooklynwx99
    but the Pacific jet is going to retract. the pattern isn't going to remain static forever. the jet extension we just saw was well forecast
  25. brooklynwx99
    so you think that trough isn't transient on average? just to be clear? and you do not believe the ensembles just a couple of days after that screenshot with a mean trough in the E US?
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