brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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i mean, most of the dissenting views that i’ve seen on this forum and others are just “well, this might not happen because i don’t think it will” with no actual analysis besides Murphy’s Law like a weird weather defensive coping mechanism
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for what? two days around the 8th?
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it isn’t really delayed though… it still shows up around the 12-14th which has been the window for a while now
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some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP. even the ensembles (especially the GEFS/GEPS) are inconsistent and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either
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EPS still looks really good. it’s been the most consistent by far, and it’s pattern progression makes the most sense given the retrograding block and what they often do to the waveguide
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beautiful
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all of the hemming and hawing over this. can’t make it up
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is this the part where everyone starts freaking out?
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they have to take the thing out back and shoot it. it has no idea how to handle the Pacific right now total flip flop each run for the last two model cycles
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yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen
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god i hate this forum sometimes lmao
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yeah, that's why you actually want a -PNA... you get really robust shortwaves crashing onto the WC that get trapped under the block, and the ridging near AK drives northern stream shortwaves southward to phase it's such a good pattern
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ha, you're talking about weenie tags but all of this makes meteorological sense, and I agree with all of it the two main windows I'm watching now are indeed the 12-14th and the period between the 17th and 23rd or so. the big dog would be when the block decays the week of the 19th most likely
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here are some of the actual plots, by the way. really cool stuff source: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/
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yeah, it's been shown that episodes of SH strat cooling correlate to a -NAO and a weaker NH SPV. I think a reload in early Jan is certainly in the cards given that
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i know. shittiest pattern i've seen in quite some time
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really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK
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really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK
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really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK
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this is the EPS compared to the pattern 7 days before 18"+ snowstorms in NYC, which includes storms like 1996, 2016, and BDB you guys can make of this what you will
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I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well: if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada
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yeah it was one of the top analogs for my coworker and I when crafting the winter outlook. PDO and MEI are great matches too
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right? they're kind of uncanny sometimes I find it hard to make comparisons to periods like that because it can come off as alarmist or pure hype, but I really do think that this pattern could hold really high end potential. just wanna wait like another 5 days or so to get more agreement near AK... the GEFS is so different compared to the EPS/GEPS
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i understand that some of you guys are skeptical about December snow, and rightfully so, but this is basically a perfect pattern for a large snowfall event a 300+ meter anomaly over the Davis Strait on a 5 day mean is the stuff of dreams
