brooklynwx99

GFS really looks improved NS more amped, SS not getting as trapped

much more confluence as opposed to 18z thanks to more phasing of the ocean storm with the TPV early on… let’s see where this goes

to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON

to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON

nah, the OP at the same lead time significantly raised heights over New England (look over NH/ME), which helped lead to the farther W track. interesting that the GEFS didn’t buy it whatsoever and actually moved the other way

the GEFS actually has stronger confluent flow over the NE than 12z… this will allow for a farther SE track even if the shortwave is more amplified the GEFS, as a result, shows that the OP remains a significant western outlier. the vast majority of the members are near or just inside the BM. even the most W members aren’t really close to PA where the OP had it

as expected, given the stronger confluence, the OP GFS is a significant western outlier compared to the GEFS

looks like the GEFS actually increased the confluent flow over the NE, this is great to see the vort itself is stronger as well. confluence will almost always exert itself more than a shortwave, so a mixture of both would still result in a more favorable track the majority of the time

EPS is absolutely gorgeous

the OP runs are on the far western edge of their respective ensemble means, I’m not particularly worried about a far W track, especially given the initial confluence over Canada it’s a possibility, but not a major concern IMO the mid levels are amazing though, that’s really all that matters at this range. almost a classic look, the GEPS has a closed contour at 500mb over the TN Valley!

the OP runs are on the far western edge of their respective ensemble means, I’m not particularly worried about a far W track, especially given the initial confluence over Canada it’s a possibility, but not a major concern IMO the 500mb look is amazing though, that’s what matters most at this range

GEFS looks great broad 500mb trough over the TN Valley and some confluent flow downstream thanks to the SE Canada ULL NS energy getting picked up consistently as well

very difficult to draw it up much better than this broad 500mb trough over the TN valley, confluence over the NE and phasing imminent pretty classic look

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL: This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why: Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL: This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why: Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL: This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why: Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

holy crap

the 12z GFS looks a bit better at 500mb! more buckling of the trough with appreciably higher heights over NJ. much more PVA into the region overall I was not expecting a positive shift at 12z here, so this is great to see. the GFS really isn't backing down here as it improved in all facets

the NAM made a huge shift at 500mb, namely in the positive interaction of the NS rather than a negative confluent push, as we had seen a couple of days ago the initial vort is more amped, which is great, but the NS is now helping to turn heights in a more southerly direction. look at the wind bards S of LI: almost due S from WSW last run. this drastically changes the angle of the PVA

the NAM made a huge shift at 500mb, namely in the positive interaction of the NS rather than a negative confluent push, as we had seen a couple of days ago the initial vort is more amped, which is great, but the NS is now helping to turn heights in a more southerly direction. look at the wind bards S of LI: almost due S from WSW last run. this drastically changes the angle of the PVA

wow, this is much more robust. closed contour at 500mb as well as higher heights over NJ

NAM is way more amped through 25

Monday's system just got more interesting with the significant amplified shift from the GEFS a couple more ticks like this and we're in business

wow, this is an amazing look. strong vort diving S of the region with great jet support

overall, this event is certainly a "thread the needle" type storm, but things still look interesting given today's trend of a stronger, slower SS vort with less NS interaction. a GFS-like solution can't be discarded at this juncture it looks like the American models are doing a decent job with this, as the ECMWF and RGEM took some steps towards the GFS/NAM. the 18z ECMWF made a nice shift towards a more favorable solution: of course, this remains rather unlikely, but I think it's worth looking to see if the 00z runs continue this trend