brooklynwx99

this really all comes down to the consolidation of the trough and then the handling of the dual low. the first can be handled somewhat well by modeling, but the second is really a no-go. some models have to parameterize the convection, which leads to assumptions being made, and everything goes south very quickly I really just think that we're just going to see how this one plays out over the next 24 hours. I have no more confidence than I did yesterday, if anything, even less this is not to say that these changes will be for the better, they could be for the worse, too! we're just not going to have a good idea until we can see what the system is doing in real time If I had to take a stab at it, I would say 8-14" for the metro, but this is low confidence and I can't even put much weight behind it

what do you even say to this? would be 3-4”/hr rates at 15F and 60 mph gusts

this is absolutely unreal.

I am in shock. if the ECMWF even ticks west, the metro may actually have a legitimate shot of seeing major (12+) totals

I'm feeling good about this one. the trends are undeniable, and the GEFS/GFS finally caved in a big way. coupled with the nice shifts from the NAM/RGEM as well as the 12z EPS, I am becoming increasingly optimistic for a more high-end solution for the metro as of now, I agree with Upton, around 6-10" looks good. but the potential for more is rearing its head a bit more now

NAM looks great so far. initial disturbance is much improved

everything on the ECMWF is improved

the NAM is nothing like the 18z as expected, was just a hiccup earlier both streams are more favorable

EPS is way amped. unreal

EPS is way amped, not what I expected at all

noooooo most of them are great! only a select few who pop in here every now and then with 312hr torch progs lmao

hey man, I will never be the bearer of bad news. leave that to the NYC trolls

ECMWF looks better here. S disturbance not as held back and the NS is a touch stronger

the GEFS actually improved pretty nicely at 250/500mb

GEFS improved as well. pretty notable changes at 250 and 500 heights are higher everywhere downstream as well. the TPV issue isn't there

GFS is improved with both pieces in the same way as the RGEM

the RGEM actually looks improved with both the southern and northern vorts, as it progresses the S piece faster and it has the N piece more meridionally oriented. would lead to a cleaner phase didn't translate to the surface, but that's not very important

the ECMWF has a more favorably oriented NS vort that’s more meridional than 18z with a negligible change with regards to the southern wave this should phase more efficiently than 18z

500mb on the ECMWF is much more backed with SE-ly flow, while the GFS remains rather progressive despite the great moves aloft

GFS is going to be major

textbook

ECMWF is fully phasing

jesus christ

ECMWF going to look even better... initial wave looks more progressive than 18z

much improved