brooklynwx99

big thump for pretty much everyone

great thump here with HP locked in

hey, people from different subforums come in here and it's always useful to provide context for broad geographical comments like that someone from, say, the MA could get the wrong impression otherwise

I mean... it's still a pretty active overrunning pattern. lower than average heights in SE Canada and probably lots of sfc HP due to the -EPO. a weak 500mb SE ridge isn't a death knell by any means with the EPO domain looking like that if I was from NYC north I would 100% take my chances with that

not exactly sure who's going to get it here, but this is exactly what you want to see for overrunning wintry precip in the N MA strong, zonal 250mb jet streak, zonal 500mb flow with confluence in SE Canada, and entrenched cold air with strong HP

@Typhoon Tip here comes the GFS correcting heights given the strong cold press

also, to make sure that the March 2015 analog isn't overstated, here are NYC's Marches over 10" since 1980: notice that there are some striking similarities to the pattern that we're likely entering: the main feature in those Marches is a +PNA/-EPO with the positive anomalies centered over AK, which is what we have here. also, blocking really doesn't play much of a role in determining whether the month will be snowy or not. in fact, there's a +NAO on average in short, we might be in for it

yeah, I'm not expecting KNYC to get almost 20" of snow, but there's always an elevated risk for winter storms when the pattern is that amplified, no matter the antecedent conditions would be different if Jan and Feb torched, but Jan was cold and Feb will probably finish a bit above normal it's just a signal that we're probably entering into a pattern that's worked for us, historically

March 15 style KNYC got 18.6" in Mar 15 and the two patterns share a lot of similarities

we're going to have a lot of chances if this is even in the ballpark

yeah, it’s one of the most impressive cold signals I’ve seen in a while

wow, this is super impressive stuff 200m anomaly on the 5 day mean over AK

man, this is really impressive

it's a good sign. there's pretty notable split flow, so this ups the risk for phasing scenarios and general storminess with the northern and southern streams mingling

I don't think it would be an issue, per se, but it would not shock me to see a beefy system slam DC as the cold press strengthens. I think this pattern favors pretty much all of the E US that split flow is a nice asset as well... ups the phasing possibilities

I would be surprised if there wasn't a significant overrunning/coastal storm in the E US with that waveguide... suppression quite far S could be a risk though. it's happened before in these kinds of setups where even DC cashes in

the duality of man

very cold, lots of overrunning

beautiful look here

speaks for itself

thing of beauty

bruh

hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent. However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low: So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP: This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain: I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking: Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.