brooklynwx99

the key over the last few runs across the GFS and ECMWF has been increased involvement of the TPV. the lobe has consistently trended deeper, lowering heights and temps as a result over the NE

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

every ensemble had the same overall pattern, and the signal decayed on all ensembles. the GEFS was also very aggressive with the cold, as was the GEPS. it happens never said the EPS was correct, either. just said that it's worth considering that kind of solution if the trend continues at 00z

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

I'll continue to take my chances with this much cold air around. there's been signals for a larger system around the 13-18th, and it does fit the general pattern around that time

nothing has changed regarding the mid-month period. this is anomalous cold and there's been signals of a larger system popping in the 13-18th timeframe

yeah the pattern coming up is anomalously cold. it does favor NYC-PHL and N, but with a cold press that strong, there definitely is the possibility for the MA to see some wintry weather as well

whoops, edited yeah that pattern has a lot going for it. strong EPO blocking, weak W ridging, and even some blocking into Greenland helping force the TPV south. looks very cold with an active storm track

I would be quite surprised if there wasn't a legit threat from the 12-20th with this look

we're likely going to see another legit threat or two if this pattern comes to fruition elongated TPV over SE Canada, EPO blocking, western ridging, and even some indications of ridging into Greenland. this is a very cold, active pattern the next week or so will be quiet, but winter is definitely not over

I would say that's a -AO with all the positive height anomalies over the pole. there could be some ridging into Greenland too, and any bit of that helps

you guys should have some chances towards mid-month if the ensembles have a clue. -EPO is going to promote cross polar flow for the foreseeable future. the cold gets dumped into the W US first, but it should seep its way over. SE Canada will be frigid, though, which is super important. also some hints of Greenland blocking showing up, which would reinforce cold air in SE Canada and shove the TPV a bit south looks like an overrunning pattern, and there is a shot that you guys could end up on the cold side of the gradient if there's a stronger cold push

we are going to experience a bit of a warmer pattern after this cold shot this weekend. there is an outside shot for a clipper/miller B around the March 1-3 period, but it's a long shot. however, the pattern does look to reload we will warm up as the -EPO fires up and cold gets dumped into the west. however, the -EPO extends so far towards the pole that pretty much all of the cold air in the NH is funneled into SE Canada. the SPV is also going to come under some significant fire, and the weakening of the PV should allow for some blocking to possibly form. this would also help to drive the TPV southward into SE Canada overall, this should allow for a ton of cold air to pool into SE Canada and for a broad CONUS trough to form once we finish the first week of March. New England is going to be favored here, but we should continue to have overrunning chances if Canada stays that cold. the sustained -EPO will bring Arctic air into Canada and the CONUS through mid-month, which is the most important factor for March snow

NAM is coming S. weaker system and more confluence

NAM is going to move S. more confluence as well as a weaker system

NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location

GFS going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

GFS also going to be colder... more confluence in SE Canada

Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering throughout the MA from VA to NYC is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

yeah, a 250m anomaly on a 5 day mean with total ensemble support is super anomalous stuff. would be lots of wintry chances through mid-month

GFS looks great

big hit here. wow