brooklynwx99

I was in East Brunswick on Saturday and my car read 102 just after driving in a residential area. felt like it too I think EWR is actually a pretty good representation of the UHI and other densely populated areas in NE NJ as well as SI, Brooklyn, and Queens away from the immediate coast

yeah, totally. very preliminary as of now, pretty much only based on ENSO and not much else 2012-13 was back-loaded and 2000-01 front-loaded, so we should get one wintry month this year. when all is said and done, it should end up near average looks like Dec/Mar have the most potential by a wide margin as of now with Jan/Feb being the weaker two months

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC

i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff

here are the composites of these five winters and their Februaries: I think these pretty much speak for themselves

hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58 here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries: the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!) so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient!

just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58! 1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again 57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering

things will become a lot more moist heading into tropical season. the analogs are screaming another very wet summer with slightly above average temps the pattern should be conducive for EC landfalls and we should see a lot of 90/70 type days towards late July - early September

this looks just as bad as last week's event over 70kt of 0-6 bulk shear with very low LCLs, nearly saturated column, and tons of low-level SRH the main difference with this setup is that the forcing mechanism is a dryline rather than a cold front, which often allows for more discrete activity to form. notice that the bulk shear vectors are more normal to the dryline than last event, where there was lots of deep layer shear that was nearly parallel to the cold front, which promotes QLCSs rather than discrete activity. so overall, I'm more a bit more concerned with cells ahead of the main QLCS than last week

aside from the early cooldown, April looks warmer than not. also some indications of a warmer summer but that's way out there. the base state of the persistent SE / W Atlantic ridge has been established, so ride with that until further notice

this is a locked and loaded KU pattern... in early-mid March. however, it's not impossible to see some more snow given the very favorable pattern here. climo is certainly a problem S of the M-D line, but I wouldn't totally rule it out

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph

could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph

pretty wild to see the EPS become colder and colder each run with less than 48 hours of lead time

very impressive to see such a consistent cold trend at 48 hours out from the EPS

looks like the colder trends are continuing! could be a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow in the metro around midday. 1-3” is a good call for now, mainly on colder surfaces

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution

wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution