brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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also
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yeah I do think that the first couple weeks of Jan could be good snow wise if the blocking does come to fruition. after that Nina climo almost overwhelmingly takes over into Feb in the analogs it's never a complete shutout up by you guys, but it definitely looks torchy
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December into early Jan still looks good... there's a legit signal for blocking, particularly in the NAO region I do agree that it looks gross as we head into Feb though
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whoops. it's actually even stronger lmao
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I haven't seen anything peer reviewed or anything like that... just a correlation that could be useful for this winter it seems like a bit too much to be a coincidence. there's a lot of years there and actual analogs based on ENSO/QBO/PDO that back it up
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1) I believe they're years that exhibited significant SH strat cooling, not particularly for eruptions the author of the post constructed a SH strat temp index and picked out particularly cold years... here's the link if you'd like to read the entire thing, it's quite detailed: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ 2) yes, these are analogs that my coworkers and I agreed on, factoring in ENSO, PDO, and QBO... all of them are weak -ENSO/cold neutral coming off of multiple -ENSO events, besides 1996-97
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it's also worth noting that the analogs also had a very weak NH SPV compared to average, which checks out with increased early blocking
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yes, for sure
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the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February
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so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it
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for sure. my initial thought is that the flavor of this winter will be similar to last, but we should shift the cold / snowy period up a few weeks. like mid December to early Jan also... the PDO looks much improved thus far. it can change for sure, but this is a good look initially with all the warm water off the WC if this remains heading into November, it bolsters the case for a wintry Dec
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2000-01 is a legit analog this year
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
brooklynwx99 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
for the amount I help contribute to LR stuff during the winter (very often times optimistically), I don't exactly feel like this level of snark is warranted over valid meteorological analysis I apologize if my post came off the wrong way, didn't mean to come off as a downer or anything. many should get good winds with the outflow anyway. IAD gusted to 52 -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
brooklynwx99 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
lmao trust me, coming from the NYC area, we don't even dream of storms up here you guys have gotten some beefy guys this year though -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
brooklynwx99 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
this looks like a scenario where most in MD north of DC get the bulk of their gusts with the outflow. that line has become outflow dominant very quickly, so I don't see it lasting too long the boundary could fire some new pop-ups tho -
I think December has the potential to be pretty banging, honestly. reminiscent of last Jan and I also love seeing the ample amount of subsurface warmth near the dateline for next winter
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December was a real shame... that was a massive, perfectly placed cutoff UL high over Greenland and the Davis Strait. classic west-based -NAO. if we just had a "normal" -PNA, it's likely a big dog month thanks to redevelopers and SWFEs, especially up by you guys even when LR forecasting, it had the look of a big month, but the record breaking Aleutian ridge did it in
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it's funny, although the climate is undoubtedly warming, there will be areas that see record breaking cold / snow in the CONUS regardless. look at Seattle last winter with that record breaking Aleutian ridge: crazy thing is, there's nothing to say that we can't get that kind of behemoth ridge over the W US into AK or over Greenland instead... just need different forcing that will be present when the base state flips 2023-24 or shortly thereafter. there's going to be a pretty sick winter once the band snaps in the other direction. @40/70 Benchmark shares the same general sentiment
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The super Nino in 2015-16 completely ruined the NA pattern. It's a total flip from 2009-2015 to 2017-2022. Can't wait for the Nino base state to return, hopefully in 2023-24.
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you guys just need a moderate to strong central-based +ENSO to really cash in. there's actually a big correlation between that ENSO state and well above average snows for you guys due to the combination of a strong STJ and N Atlantic blocking andddd that ENSO state looks quite likely during 2023-24, if not 2024-25. just gotta be patient, it's coming
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yeah that sounds about right
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yeah, exactly. I see no indication of a 2011-12 winter or 2019-20 winter walking through the door seems kinda similar to last winter with very cold air in Canada, perhaps more front-loaded. we will all see some chances, there are just less the farther S you get
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btw, my analog post wasn't to say we have a completely snowless winter on the way there could be a good wintry period from mid Dec - early Jan if I had to take a guess. something similar to last winter where there were definite, relatively short windows that you had to cash in on instead of a totally conducive / inconducive winter pattern for months at a time
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yes, exactly... @40/70 Benchmark and I are both quite bullish on 2023-24 due to the probable Modoki +ENSO event that follows these environments if so, could be a legit blockbuster for a good portion of the MA. time will tell! just gotta be patient
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I have a very difficult time being optimistic for the MA this winter there could be a fast start this December, but late Jan - Feb look to be pretty torchy. you guys (as well as NYC/PHL for that matter) would have to capitalize during a few weeks some primary analogs based on ENSO, QBO and IOD are 1985-86, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2012-13
