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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it's refreshing to see these blocked patterns begin to show up in the medium range. similar stuff happened last year
  2. brooklynwx99
    wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter
  3. brooklynwx99
    kind of a wild trend. hopefully we see more of this in the coming months... it's getting far enough into autumn that it holds a bit of weight. we saw the same -NAO trends last winter
  4. brooklynwx99
    this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year
  5. brooklynwx99
    we might as well mention the cooling of the majority of the N PAC basin, especially near Japan and SW of the Aleutian Islands
  6. brooklynwx99
    you seem a bit traumatized, dude. -NAO blocking has been in place for pretty much all of NYC's largest storms. to say that Greenland blocking is not beneficial is untrue
  7. brooklynwx99
    one would think that a Nino developing next year would actually kick things positive for a stretch
  8. brooklynwx99
    I prefer to think of the AO as general blocking, the EPO as an Arctic cold index (independent on where it's going), the PNA as a modulator on where cold ends up in the CONUS, and the NAO as a big storm modifier, at least for NYC south. very difficult to get a MECS+ without a -NAO down here i've done research on preloading patterns and the -NAO really has no impact up by you. it's all forced by the Pacific, as you know (see Jan 2022, Jan 2015)
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog
  10. brooklynwx99
    the S/W becoming more amplified over WI leads to increased phasing down the line. the entire tilt of the trough is more negative as a result, leading to a much more tucked and amplified system. this is a solid example of looking at 500mb ensemble trends to see how phasing impacts storm track. with all major ensembles on board inside of D5 (CMC was holding out a bit yesterday and this morning), confidence in this system making significant impacts is a good bit higher
  11. brooklynwx99
    since I almost exclusively use analogs since 2000 with only a few in the 90s, I think the 91-20 climo is okay to use
  12. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not the best job
  13. brooklynwx99
    that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there
  14. brooklynwx99
    in recent years? when has it ever not been tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely?
  15. brooklynwx99
    I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself
  16. brooklynwx99
    i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA
  18. brooklynwx99
    no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC
  19. brooklynwx99
    so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch
  20. brooklynwx99
    is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)
  21. brooklynwx99
    i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last
  22. brooklynwx99
    although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns
  23. brooklynwx99
    looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting
  24. brooklynwx99
    looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight
  25. brooklynwx99
    I'm a fan of the EP Nina look showing up. most seasonals keep the EP Nina into the winter, which would bode well for EC cold/snow prospects overall
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