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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    isn’t most of the warmth forecasting on this forum persistence forecasting? lmao
  2. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF with a pretty significant improvement with heights out west. went from nothing to something
  3. brooklynwx99
    thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing
  4. brooklynwx99
    nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus
  5. brooklynwx99
    what would you consider “this?” i’d think there’s still a good bit of regression and generally unfavorable -ENSO/-PDO type stuff going on as well along with the compression you always mention
  6. brooklynwx99
    not much in the way of OP run cinema
  7. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the anomalies are always more useful
  8. brooklynwx99
    we continue to trend out west
  9. brooklynwx99
    can’t deny the trends out west
  10. brooklynwx99
    west based blocking decaying around that time also argues for a storm popping up
  11. brooklynwx99
    yeah, talk about dynamic. you have an actual ridge in the west, too. stout
  12. brooklynwx99
    12-13th might be an actual window to watch. nice to see the ridge out west trend taller, which helps shift the trough west as well
  13. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the ridge out west trend taller. helps the trough location and amplitude
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, can see heights trending higher in the West and the trough inching into a better spot as a result
  15. brooklynwx99
    the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway
  16. brooklynwx99
    personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like? what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time
  17. brooklynwx99
    i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there
  18. brooklynwx99
    who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied
  19. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features
  20. brooklynwx99
    i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao
  21. brooklynwx99
    who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that
  22. brooklynwx99
    lol, GEFS capitulating. much lower AO, -NAO signal strengthening too
  23. brooklynwx99
    if a transient AK vortex does develop, it would be due to a strongly negative WPO… you’d be getting modified Siberian air, not a true Pacific onslaught sure, you’d modify eventually, but it wouldn’t be all that bad
  24. brooklynwx99
    quite the trend with the AO… almost getting a -WPO/-NAO ridge bridge at this point. makes sense with the weak SPV
  25. brooklynwx99
    i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst
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