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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken
  2. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken
  3. brooklynwx99
    I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit
  4. brooklynwx99
    lol what the hell is the point of that then
  5. brooklynwx99
    one of the only things that can really alleviate a shit Pacific with -WPO is a strong west based -NAO… just shunts everything west and changes the Pacific alignment
  6. brooklynwx99
    can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see
  7. brooklynwx99
    can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see
  8. brooklynwx99
    if you retro that Pacific trough a bit more and allow for the ridge axis over the Plain to shift 100mi towards Montana, things become very interesting
  9. brooklynwx99
    the 23rd and 26th are both pretty interesting as vorts come over the top of that C US ridge. could be some WAA thumps
  10. brooklynwx99
    pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line
  11. brooklynwx99
    nah i can't, which is why I think things are going to be one or the other. either more of a trough over the NE or warmer like the old GEPS runs. that's a weird in between
  12. brooklynwx99
    these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that
  13. brooklynwx99
    story of the last few years. one would have to hope that: 1) the Bering Sea ridge ticks east more into AK so you can get a bit of a ridge bridge going, or 2) the -NAO becomes stronger and more west based, shifting that ridge west along with it (also allowing for more of a ridge bridge) we have also seen models consistently overdo E US heights, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a trough trend deeper as we head closer. we'll see
  14. brooklynwx99
    that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west
  15. brooklynwx99
    that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west
  16. brooklynwx99
    ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal
  17. brooklynwx99
    sir, this is a La Nina
  18. brooklynwx99
    yeah, i'm pretty confident that we're going to see the NAO drop rather significantly as the Scandi / N ATL trough retrogrades... the WH MJO forcing is a strong precursor to that, as it helps wavebreaking occur in the N ATL
  19. brooklynwx99
    EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week
  20. brooklynwx99
    luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence
  21. brooklynwx99
    this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI
  22. brooklynwx99
    that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1
  23. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure
  24. brooklynwx99
    EPS has really been buckling the trough more in recent runs
  25. brooklynwx99
    definitely seeing a solid trend towards more buckling of the trough, leading to a bump north with precip. i'm thinking that NYC's looking at 2-4"... might honestly be more like 3-6" at this rate. we'll see if these trends persist. if so, we're looking at more of the latter range
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