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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway
  2. brooklynwx99
    personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like? what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time
  3. brooklynwx99
    i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there
  4. brooklynwx99
    who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied
  5. brooklynwx99
    to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features
  6. brooklynwx99
    i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao
  7. brooklynwx99
    who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that
  8. brooklynwx99
    lol, GEFS capitulating. much lower AO, -NAO signal strengthening too
  9. brooklynwx99
    if a transient AK vortex does develop, it would be due to a strongly negative WPO… you’d be getting modified Siberian air, not a true Pacific onslaught sure, you’d modify eventually, but it wouldn’t be all that bad
  10. brooklynwx99
    quite the trend with the AO… almost getting a -WPO/-NAO ridge bridge at this point. makes sense with the weak SPV
  11. brooklynwx99
    i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst
  12. brooklynwx99
    no problem, Ray! always glad to be of assistance
  13. brooklynwx99
    you know i’m not IMBY-ing, but i do think that the overall pattern favors less consolidation and an outcome more similar to the foreign guidance. it’s progressive
  14. brooklynwx99
    it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest
  15. brooklynwx99
    GFS on an island… usually ends only one way
  16. brooklynwx99
    even with said AK vortex (which seems suspect), it’s still cold with a -NAO popping up. this would still be serviceable for a while, and this seems like the worst case scenario through the 10th. EPS and GEPS are much colder with +PNA
  17. brooklynwx99
    i like to use the GEPS as a bit of a tiebreaker in these instances… def more EPS-like like seeing that -NAO over the top, really helps out
  18. brooklynwx99
    i’m fine with leaning a certain way based on certain reasoning. you’ll be wrong at that range sometimes, it is what it is the storm also hasn’t verified, though
  19. brooklynwx99
    this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough
  20. brooklynwx99
  21. brooklynwx99
    personally, given the pattern, i would find something suppressed and washed out more likely than something as amped as the GFS
  22. brooklynwx99
    way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO
  23. brooklynwx99
    don't worry, if it's wrong, it'll tick 10 miles NW at a time for twenty runs in a row
  24. brooklynwx99
    i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z
  25. brooklynwx99
    I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see
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