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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI
  2. brooklynwx99
    that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1
  3. brooklynwx99
    wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure
  4. brooklynwx99
    EPS has really been buckling the trough more in recent runs
  5. brooklynwx99
    definitely seeing a solid trend towards more buckling of the trough, leading to a bump north with precip. i'm thinking that NYC's looking at 2-4"... might honestly be more like 3-6" at this rate. we'll see if these trends persist. if so, we're looking at more of the latter range
  6. brooklynwx99
    merry torchmas!!!
  7. brooklynwx99
    the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems
  8. brooklynwx99
    last time I checked, though, most people don't life 5000 feet above the surface, let alone 15000 feet. if it's NN to BN at the surface in the NE at times, nobody will care if it's +20F over some barren cornfield in NE
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah, not really a torch pattern with the -WPO encroaching into AK and the TPV elongated like that. sure, it's a torch for 75% of the CONUS, but who cares
  10. brooklynwx99
    you know, some of you keep giving that guy a platform by breathlessly posting about him. we know he sucks
  11. brooklynwx99
    the GFS just has to be tossed assuming the ECMWF holds steady. it is awful with these anafront type systems and is almost always too progressive with them we’re still on track for plowable snowfall in the metro IMO
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol Webb going on his weenie crusade when he hypes just as much as literally everyone else on that platform
  13. brooklynwx99
    meanwhile, RGEM is coming in even more amped lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    just a classic post-2016 NYC metro subforum exchange about the RGEM lmao
  15. brooklynwx99
    gotta love the GFS suite
  16. brooklynwx99
    why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so
  17. brooklynwx99
    lol it has 0.4" liquid in NYC. 3-5" is a perfect description
  18. brooklynwx99
    yup, move towards the euro with the TPV more tucked in and higher heights over the NE
  19. brooklynwx99
    RGEM looking good. TPV better oriented
  20. brooklynwx99
    yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks
  21. brooklynwx99
    it's because he's a troll and he sucks
  22. brooklynwx99
    yeah, i was wondering, because I wouldn't say that there's been a standing wave out there... looks like typical MJO propagation to me we'll finally have legit WHEM forcing in late Dec, which should have us break colder into early Jan. just getting some IO/MC influence right now that will wash out, hence the warmer pattern later this month
  23. brooklynwx99
    the CMC isn’t that far off from the ECMWF, the ECMWF is just a bit deeper
  24. brooklynwx99
    yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing
  25. brooklynwx99
    yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor
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