-
Posts
5,803 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by brooklynwx99
-
Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25
brooklynwx99 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
just a classic post-2016 NYC metro subforum exchange about the RGEM lmao -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25
brooklynwx99 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
why even bother with snowmaps? use liquid and then apply 10:1 or slightly above / below depending on DGZ and dynamics. this event would produce 12-15:1 pretty easily on the northern end of the precip shield; these events usually do so -
Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25
brooklynwx99 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
-
Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25
brooklynwx99 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
2025-2026 ENSO
brooklynwx99 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
it's because he's a troll and he sucks -
2025-2026 ENSO
brooklynwx99 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
yeah, i was wondering, because I wouldn't say that there's been a standing wave out there... looks like typical MJO propagation to me we'll finally have legit WHEM forcing in late Dec, which should have us break colder into early Jan. just getting some IO/MC influence right now that will wash out, hence the warmer pattern later this month -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now -
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
if that vort moves hundreds of miles SW you have a MECS on your hands. not even exaggerating (not like that's going to happen) -
with the GFS and CMC looking more amped and the ECMWF and AIFS largely holding serve, I think we're trending towards the first plowable snowfall of the year for the metro. let's give it a couple more days, but things are looking good
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
-
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
brooklynwx99 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
