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brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. the CMC isn’t that far off from the ECMWF, the ECMWF is just a bit deeper
  2. yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing
  3. yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor
  4. the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range
  5. personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now
  6. euro is a nice moderate event, comes in more amped with the TPV leaning more southwest
  7. could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW
  8. euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream
  9. if that vort moves hundreds of miles SW you have a MECS on your hands. not even exaggerating (not like that's going to happen)
  10. with the GFS and CMC looking more amped and the ECMWF and AIFS largely holding serve, I think we're trending towards the first plowable snowfall of the year for the metro. let's give it a couple more days, but things are looking good
  11. if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems
  12. CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented
  13. yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation
  14. if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades
  15. not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year
  16. lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen
  17. this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  18. this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling
  19. same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave
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