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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway
  2. brooklynwx99
    i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS
  3. brooklynwx99
    i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious
  4. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold
  5. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  6. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  7. brooklynwx99
    all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved
  8. brooklynwx99
    yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too
  9. brooklynwx99
    this poses some promise
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops
  11. brooklynwx99
    yup, still light-mod snow here, measured 2.4” 10 mins ago… very happy to end up getting close to 3” when all is said and done given how the event began
  12. brooklynwx99
    looking squally
  13. brooklynwx99
    associated with the main vort moving through, makes sense
  14. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is doing a better job with the main 700mb FGEN axis than the NAM, which looks too far north
  15. brooklynwx99
    looks like we're seeing 700mb WAA/FGEN get going, as well as some nice PVA... we should see snow blossom over the next couple of hours
  16. brooklynwx99
    the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)
  17. brooklynwx99
    yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies
  18. brooklynwx99
    i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy
  19. brooklynwx99
    NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous
  20. brooklynwx99
    gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow
  21. brooklynwx99
    really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287
  22. brooklynwx99
    same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR
  23. brooklynwx99
    that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run
  24. brooklynwx99
    can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period
  25. brooklynwx99
    lol this is an absurd shift
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