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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    also, more of a signal on the EPS for the 15th... makes sense with the PNA spike
  2. brooklynwx99
    lol for the love of god, please verify
  3. brooklynwx99
    if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023
  4. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  5. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing
  6. brooklynwx99
    i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up
  7. brooklynwx99
    probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway
  8. brooklynwx99
    i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS
  9. brooklynwx99
    i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious
  10. brooklynwx99
    yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold
  11. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  12. brooklynwx99
    lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens
  13. brooklynwx99
    all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too
  15. brooklynwx99
    this poses some promise
  16. brooklynwx99
    yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops
  17. brooklynwx99
    yup, still light-mod snow here, measured 2.4” 10 mins ago… very happy to end up getting close to 3” when all is said and done given how the event began
  18. brooklynwx99
    looking squally
  19. brooklynwx99
    associated with the main vort moving through, makes sense
  20. brooklynwx99
    RGEM is doing a better job with the main 700mb FGEN axis than the NAM, which looks too far north
  21. brooklynwx99
    looks like we're seeing 700mb WAA/FGEN get going, as well as some nice PVA... we should see snow blossom over the next couple of hours
  22. brooklynwx99
    the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)
  23. brooklynwx99
    yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies
  24. brooklynwx99
    i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy
  25. brooklynwx99
    NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous
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