brooklynwx99

the Southeast and southern MA is loving climate change right now

the heights over British Columbia are higher again

simple, the GFS is tallest with the ridge out west and allows the NS to have better momentum

the CMC and UKMET are also much better looking out west. I am definitely taking the GFS with a grain of salt but it's not that far off, and the PNA has been trending better for a while now

FWIW the CMC did make some nice shifts synoptically

the trend with the PNA over the last model cycle has been pretty nice. went from a trough to a full latitude ridge on the GEFS over BC

agreed, though the trend for more -NAO probably does limit the extent of the warmth

dude that was two weeks ago, damn

it's an operational model at 10 days out. it will do that, as will any other OP at this range

all ensembles maintain a signal for the 9-10th, just a matter of phasing. worth keeping an eye on

GEFS has quite a signal with lots of strong coastals

the transient 50/50 and -EPO do help this threat. the synoptics are there, it just needs to deliver with a phase

next shot at something more substantial is probably the 9-10th as the cutter drops the TPV down and a wave tries to amp into the colder airmass with the transient PNA spike. after that, it's likely curtains outside of NNE with some warm weather on the way

oh god please no

the AIFS humping is going to be unbearable for a while. past 5 days it isn't as good as any other model, really