brooklynwx99

meh, that AK trough is from a strong -WPO. it's just modified Arctic air, not nearly the same as a Pacific blowtorch. the pattern moderates but it never really gets all that warm. weird looking, though

SE ridge continues to be overmodeled in time

SE ridge getting squashed again

easily could have been very snowy up here, but we have had shit luck with kickers... one a couple of weeks ago and another this coming week. things just aren't coming together. however, the MA is going to be AN on the year through the end of Jan

i mean, it should take years between each KU. we've been spoiled with one every 1-2 years

southern stream vort into TPV is a good way to get snow. hopefully it works out

true. out of all the years that I thought were analogous, 13-14 might look the most similar at 500mb. we'll see if late Jan into Feb/Mar is any better for snow. it'll get wetter at least

although we get a bit more Nina-ish into the end of the month, it never really looks all that warm with the TPV nearby. we'll have chances

snowfall is much harder to predict at long lead times

Morristown

0.8 here as of half an hour ago, probably close to 1” now… expecting around 6”

the heavier precip down in E PA will pivot in over the next few hours. most of the accumulations were always going to be between 21-03z… it’ll rip this evening into the metro

first plowable to potentially significant event for most on here in a while. excited! could see some nice rates this evening

it spitting out 3”/hr rates in E PA was a big red flag. just not happening in this setup