brooklynwx99

although it won't magically flip, the Japan trough and equatorward jet will promote LP and cooling from Japan to N of HI, and the AK ridge will promote warming in the GoAK the PDO won't flip this year, but this will almost certainly make a big dent in the magnitude of the negative anomaly

the equatorward jet extension keeps an Aleutian trough in place... it actually strengthens as the run goes on

I wasn't expecting a cold or snowy winter going into autumn with the -3.5 PDO either, believe me. however, 2013-14 has always been an intriguing year, and often times the late Nov-early Dec pattern will show the flavor of the winter, whether good or bad

I guess the "Nino hangover" is a thing after all that also makes me wonder if Feb is really going to be that crappy... if we don't have a super strong Nina influence, is it wise to assume so? for the record, I still expect a warm Feb, I'm just not as confident in it

it's looked warm and dry for quite some time. Nov was a very high confidence forecast IMO

going to be honest, I really did think that early Dec would be quite warm with the state of the MJO, but it clearly isn't driving the bus. my guess is the higher AAM is leading to a more extended jet, pushing the ridge near the Aleutians closer to AK and leading to more poleward wave breaking

the PDO isn't really a pattern driver... more of a pattern reinforcer. a -PDO will enhance a -PNA, but the 500mb pattern ultimately drives the SST anomalies, not the other way around

at some point, to change the -PDO, there is often a year that has a disconnect and features a +PNA... 2013-14 was that year, and the -PDO is probably going to end up close to neutral if the advertised pattern comes to fruition not to say we're going to get a 2013-14 type year... something like a 2013/2021 mix is likely the colder scenario for the winter

models are advertising +AAM with is unusual for -ENSO. wouldn't be shocking considering a top 5 Nino last year

really nice -EPO/-WPO pattern. there's confluence as the TPV elongates in the 50/50 region which would lock in that high verbatim

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

been a long time since I've seen a SE ridge get squashed in the medium range

2013-14 has been a good analog for a while. high solar, too