brooklynwx99

lol i know you’re on the big storm train. the similarities are uncanny, obviously not calling for anything this massive but the pattern really is analogous

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look

yeah this is the timeframe I like for a larger snow event... very cold airmass has been established with a potent -EPO, there's a N ATL dipole with lots of confluence in the 50/50 region, and split flow. the STJ undercutting is something out of the Modoki Nino handbook too

I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat

EPS is actually trending better, somehow

well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW

well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW

about 3.1” in Morristown! what a nice little event can’t ask for more in late December

indeed. it’s been a long time. got about 2” in Morristown

the vort moving through over the next 6-12 hours should spark some decent snow over NNJ. likely some coatings up to 1-2”

can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable

yeah, it’s a very open flow… ripe for amplification. the block is actually doing its job too with the clogged up N ATL

fantabulous, actually

it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us