tim123
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Everything posted by tim123
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Nam waffles alot at longer range. Looks like it wants to chase convection again with low. Not overly worried about nam
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Nws in buffalo did mention this trend of winter and not to let guard down a couple days ago.
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Still got 2 days of model watching Dave. Ride the coaster hopefully we can continue trend of winter to our benifit for once
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Just a word about lake snow we just had roc got 6 total from event. With .14 liquid. Thats 44 to 1 ratios. Goes to show ya don't need much qpf for decent snow. Thursday night screwed us would of have doubled if got a better lake response.
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Looking at plumes the area with the highest average with the biggest upside is pen yan ithica Elmira. Some of those outliers have 35 inches with average of about 15
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Wonder if there will be a inverted trough from jersey to lake ontario. Starting to get that look.
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Was just gonna say sref plumes have a mean of 7 in roc but the spread is nothing to 22 inches. Lol
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All depends on snow growth. Ccb snow is usually higher than 10 to 1. 12 to 1 even up to 18 to 1 if you have intense lift. But 12 to 1 is probally safe
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Seeing those members makes me think there is room for this to come a bit more nw. And ofcoure could be se. But trending more nw
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Think some of those other members are still on idea of suppression. But its more 50 50 split now with the member. Yesterday there where only a few showing a more nw idea.
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Up to .5 for a mean in roc. I am liking this trend. Up from .37 from last run.
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00z had .37 up from .26 at 12z yesterday
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Enough for a bump up in rochester?
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Not A classic look for lake enhanced precip 850 look a bit to warm
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So what causing these bumps nw. Is it because evolution is slower allowing high to move out to east and blocking storm on coast
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Seen storms like this where only areas that do not get atleast advisory snows are erie and niagara counties.
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00z and 12z.
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Euro would be a 4 to 8 inch for monre County and 8 to 12 for wayne
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Ensembles should be nice to see. Always love those to see real trends.
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Monroe county hamlin.1 inch gpf Fairport. .7 lol
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Nice
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Think west of syracuse Elmira line we are lucky to get 2 to 4 inches. If we do i consider it a win in this year.
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Give me this lol
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Rgem still has snow moving west at end of run.
