Probably both nights. Gonna try tonight since it's getting some steam online. If I lived where you did I'd stick my head out soon regardless... you've got much less light to deal with then I do lol
https://twitter.com/Vincent_Ledvina/status/1988397247898554680?s=20
Trying to wait for my trade partner (girlfriend). Hoping to get out around 8 and gonna try Poolesville area since it’s farmland-y and hopefully I can have a decent view north.
I think I’m tomorrow night or bust. Would take a pretty strong signal in the next 2 hours to get me outside - don’t think these precursor CMEs were supposed to be too special. Probably see something from SNP.
Think the hope is these destabilize the magnetosphere a bit and the one tomorrow pops off. Hopefully an added benefit of extended darkness is that we’ve got a larger window and can worry about timing a little less. Fingers crossed.
My aurora chat is popping off and they (not experts... hobbyists) are leaning tomorrow night. They are very excited... G4/G5. Gonna make a plan to get out in the boonies.
We’re talking tenths of an inch (at best) here… probably won’t have any solid idea of if first flakes are likely til Monday. Nice to see it pop up on a few runs still.
For the time being, the consensus definitely would seem to be that closer to the NC/VA border is the spot that could sneak in a snow shower with any secondary development early next week.
Right where we want it?
Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now
That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot
The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point.