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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
  2. NorthArlington101
    When I posted that gif I felt like
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    18z EURO went south. I’d take it with the assumption this trends north as things tend to do, unless you think the EURO/GFS have finally found the exact compromise spot at Day 5.
  5. NorthArlington101
    It’s like nobody cares about this threat but me! EURO moistened up a little. Temps just barely warm at the surface.
  6. NorthArlington101
    TW out right on the DC/MD line
  7. NorthArlington101
    That was before the event got too mainstream and changed my plans. All my voodoo is going towards Friday/Saturday now… though I’m trying to be nice about it in the main LR thread
  8. NorthArlington101
    "Gonna be funny if this storm north trends to "congrats NYC,'" he says in a salty way.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Much more appreciable difference than I had thought from 12z
  10. NorthArlington101
    Falls apart by 147 - 4-8" on NC/VA border. Dusting makes it up to us. Congrats @Bob Chill
  11. NorthArlington101
    I'm at 138 - maybe a 25-50m jog into VA? Increase in the NE extent of the precip shield into the OV more noticeable.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Since we're just having fun in this thread - I'll take the RGEM's temps and whatever model has the most precip. We can do whatever we want in here.
  13. NorthArlington101
    GFS keeps up the C-1" theme. Would lock in .5" right now if I could. Surface temps need a little work close to the metro, though.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Don’t thunderstorms precede snowstorms? Feel like I’ve heard something like that somewhere…
  15. NorthArlington101
    A widespread C-1" would bring much joy! Fully endorse.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Control says we cook through mid-Feb. Funny enough none of it is in the next 2 weeks
  17. NorthArlington101
    The mean ended up the same between 00z and 12z but I do want to help maybe level-set some folks (including myself) and just really hammer home that the OP EURO is an outlier on its members. Only a 10-20% chance - and it's closer to 10%, of >6in 10:1.
  18. NorthArlington101
    No noticeable difference from 00z - noise at best. EURO parent is still the snowiest of it's ens, though. (ok other than e31)
  19. NorthArlington101
    EPS healthier. Just about the same mean areawide as the GEFS.
  20. NorthArlington101
    For those looking beyond this period (cough, me) the EURO and the GFS both have an interesting setup for Jan 14/15. Waaaay at the end of the run, but if things fizzle out into suppression hell after the 6th, that might be the next opportunity.
  21. NorthArlington101
    There is obviously more to it than timing (maybe @CAPE's jet stream lift?) but the CMC and EURO really look the same in a lot of ways... just depends on the thumpiness of the thump and EURO being ~12 hours quicker. EURO still collapses/shreds when it gets closer to the coast.
  22. NorthArlington101
  23. NorthArlington101
    It exists!
  24. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO dusts everyone. Kinda UKIE/RGEM like where individual snow showers might give people something slant-stickabble.
  25. NorthArlington101
    They are better than the OP and better than 06z. Looking at the median over the last 4 runs:
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