sorry - no dice. taking ya'll down with me on this one. Just to make sure this post isn't entirely banter, here are the 12z GEFS members. Still a bomb or three in the mix - but safe to say the median outcome is a more SE oriented light/mod snowstorm.
Very close to canceling my emergency Friday flight, but gonna give it another 36 hours. Why not.
Hope ya'll at get the extra 3-5 to freshen up the snowpack for my return on Monday. Need to make a snowman. Or throw a snowball off my balcony. Do something snowy.
I think it did well for the last event... don't think it can handle mesoscale details well but it never moved the heavy stuff far north and never lost sight of the event happening once it was relatively "locked" down.
You must’ve missed my meltdown yesterday where I bought an emergency flight back to BWI for Friday if I need it after yesterday’s 18z GFS… so I’m happy to cheer for a monster (8”+ is the bar). If I don’t need the flight, I can cancel it for travel credit and fly to Buffalo for the next lake effect storm
also the girlfriend is back in DC - my family’s vacation didn’t work with her law school schedule. So more incentive to return early!
just got back to a laptop from the beach - but yeah, pretty much. difference between the median and the top 10% illustrate that pretty well. Also illustrates the GFS parent is pretty much the snowiest of all it's members.
also... for all my whining in the past week... basically no regrets about what turned out to be 5-6" (pending ULL) inches of snow. when NWS upped amounts last night I was sweating bullets
This subforum has a nasty relationship with threads. NYC will start them 3 weeks in advance for a storm that misses them. Here 3 days out is about right lol
Got a vague report of “more than 5”” from a friend near Eastern Market, DC. Says rates aren’t that impressive, though, so guessing sleet might be mixing in.