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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, called this out at 12z as well. Dunno how much to think about this since NWS seems to clearly think there will be some FRZA, but sleet would be a much better outcome for lots of folks down south.
  2. NorthArlington101
    At this point I think folks are so committed to this storm we might be able to raise funds for a bus to Chicago
  3. NorthArlington101
    I learned yesterday that the NAM only goes out to 3.5 days. I figured it must've gone out to 4 days because that's stupid... why 3.5? But obviously 84 hours isn't 4 days... blew my mind a little. I promise I'm a smart guy.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Congrats Chicago
  5. NorthArlington101
    Don't even know what you are supposed to do with this given no guidance really shows that outcome and all the experts at NWS/WPC/anyone everywhere seem to think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get impacted. Guess we hope he's off his game.
  6. NorthArlington101
    The 540 line isn't gospel. There is a site for the AIFS that does p-type that I should've bookmarked, but it keeps us snow as that site views it verbatim. If I can find it again I'll mark it.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship
  8. NorthArlington101
    That's pretty much it
  9. NorthArlington101
    Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday
  10. NorthArlington101
    They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68
  11. NorthArlington101
    Total precip
  12. NorthArlington101
    Can tell you we are getting smacked at 99 but I’ll let you have it
  13. NorthArlington101
    AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north
  14. NorthArlington101
    Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring.
  15. NorthArlington101
    It runs delayed, but it was all snow for DC-north yesterday. Sleet creeping nearby
  16. NorthArlington101
    I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.
  17. NorthArlington101
    \
  18. NorthArlington101
    The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+
  19. NorthArlington101
    foot of snow 10:1 in DC?
  20. NorthArlington101
    Looks like a pretty solid thump before sleet/dryslot... can start mentally trying to get comfortable with that as a "worst" case outcome.
  21. NorthArlington101
  22. NorthArlington101
    Duration really increased. All that missing QPF is on the backside
  23. NorthArlington101
    Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell
  24. NorthArlington101
    what kind of work do we do, lol
  25. NorthArlington101
    Sleet line a hair north, but you'd like to just call it a wobble. Still a money panel
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