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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm.
  2. I kind of figured we had one more jog west in us. Just absurd differences. Gotta be praying for a Jan 22 GFS-like coup. To every god.
  3. It's okay - I've heard through the grapevine the Navy model was a bomb
  4. Took about an inch off the median. I'd guess this is all shot a scattershot of the IVT
  5. 12z EPS is a fairly significant step backward on the snow mean side of the house. Will update this post with a map once it's finished.
  6. The SV maps are a decent match for precip but generally the common wisdom is WxBell ptype depiction is better.
  7. 6z EPS were significantly better. Curious if we lose ground with the 12z EPS. I'm not exactly a believer in the off runs being worse but they do "feel" jumpier.
  8. While we wait - PARA CMC has most of the snow with the IVT. Not a fan of the coastal bit.
  9. EURO AI doesn't look dissimilar to the other 12z guidance so idk why we toss. I think there is something genuine to say that the AI is never gonna have a run like the CMC since 70" of snow over the Chesapeake Bay has never happened, did so you can hope it's missing some of the intricate details
  10. DC desperately wants to get #raleighed in this storm it seems. Hope not
  11. It was touched on but this was by far the best EPS run for this threat. I'd buy the median right now. Likelihood of 3"+ also not too shabby
  12. AIFS median was a horrific drop, though. Won’t post since there are minors but DCA went from a median of like 5.5” down to 2”
  13. Idk. I'll join @SnowenOutThere in the panic room. Hope it pans out!
  14. Just realized the GEFS also sucks. Starting to wonder what we're doing here.
  15. A median storm on the EPS is about nada - which is a bright red flag here, unfortunately. Even a 75th percentile storm is really meh. We desperately need the best ens and it's OP to be wrong. Good luck to us
  16. Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.
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