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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    All I can do is total precip for now. Snow is slow.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Snow starts at 120btw. 5 days.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Considering it didn’t really have a storm last run, this is an acceptable amount of progress. Would be a pretty annoying final outcome, though (not for our Eastern Shore folks though)
  4. NorthArlington101
    I think it’s gonna go a little late for us. But much better and closer.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Unsurprisingly, some big hits in the GEFS. 6/30 pretty good. 1/30 meh. Rest say no thanks for us at least - some OBX winners. But big jump from previous runs.
  6. NorthArlington101
    ICON got closer but is wayyy too positively tilted for now. But closer.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I was gonna go with 7.5” off vibes but I need to see what the spotters around me do. Initial reports made no sense… one 7.0” in Anacosta at 12:30 and a 7.5” in NW… math not mathing. Took a super quick walk and it’s a glacier. My fairly main DC roads are not awesome. Wonder if we really get back to regular commute on Tuesday.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Rumor on the block is this nailed today’s storm. Got any more thoughts on it from a more educated perspective?
  9. NorthArlington101
    Verbatim yeah but I’d say it’s a tick or two more interesting than the 12z ENS.
  10. NorthArlington101
    Did you see the EURO? Right above? Idk. I’ll take my odds on a EURO/AIFS combo with some random AI stuff thrown in at Day 7. We’ve got a fighting chance
  11. NorthArlington101
    Seen a couple AI models like the period, including the Google Weathernext 2, which seems to be doing well recently. I’m still interested.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Up to 27 degrees in DC vs. 21 degrees at my family’s house in Arlington. Some tight temperature gradients going on today.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Also a glaze starting to appear in DC. Definitely a sleet/freezing rain mix. Not sure what to think about the next few hours. Definitely haven’t felt compelled to go outside since this morning beyond just observing a sleet pack for a second.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Pure sleet rip page. Hard to not do the “what if it was snow” but this is cool. No idea how much.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I probably should’ve cleared my “snowboard” but figured it was gonna be tough to keep track of. Just trying to appreciate what’s falling one way or the other… it’s ripping pellets
  16. NorthArlington101
    Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not.
  17. NorthArlington101
    I’m still crossing my fingers and hoping never… but let us know if ya’ll do. Probably means we’re a few hours from a flip. Send the dumping sleet up here too! I want to truly get sandblasted
  18. NorthArlington101
    Thank you for calling that out… never would’ve seen it. Miller A factory… all time weenie run.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Only good if OPM gives another day off.
  22. NorthArlington101
    You still pinging @katabatic ? Realize now that Wisp isn't that far from you... would be quite the difference.
  23. NorthArlington101
    You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would. Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk
  24. NorthArlington101
    This is the last time the forum underestimates NAM thermals... until the next marginal event. Seems wrong calling this a "marginal event" when the temperature is in the teens.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Alright... next. The AIFS and AIGEFS ens are still interesting for next Sunday - moreso the AIFS. Would want to see this come back on an OP run in the next couple of days to make me think we have a real chance.
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