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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    EURO AI says no.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I appreciate any support I guess. This is about the range we started truly reeling in Jan 3, 2022, the last real GFS coup I remember. I can't think of any other event to hang a hopium hat on. I guess NYC only got Jan 2016 at the last minute but at least all models showed a storm.
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    Final:
  5. NorthArlington101
    This is gonna be the nastiest kick in the nards
  6. NorthArlington101
    I mean...
  7. NorthArlington101
    I kind of figured we had one more jog west in us. Just absurd differences. Gotta be praying for a Jan 22 GFS-like coup. To every god.
  8. NorthArlington101
    GFS is a bomb
  9. NorthArlington101
    It's okay - I've heard through the grapevine the Navy model was a bomb
  10. NorthArlington101
    Took about an inch off the median. I'd guess this is all shot a scattershot of the IVT
  11. NorthArlington101
    ? we went from a mean of nearly 4" regionwide to this
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z EPS is a fairly significant step backward on the snow mean side of the house. Will update this post with a map once it's finished.
  13. NorthArlington101
    The SV maps are a decent match for precip but generally the common wisdom is WxBell ptype depiction is better.
  14. NorthArlington101
    wxbell
  15. NorthArlington101
    6z EPS were significantly better. Curious if we lose ground with the 12z EPS. I'm not exactly a believer in the off runs being worse but they do "feel" jumpier.
  16. NorthArlington101
    While we wait - PARA CMC has most of the snow with the IVT. Not a fan of the coastal bit.
  17. NorthArlington101
    EURO AI doesn't look dissimilar to the other 12z guidance so idk why we toss. I think there is something genuine to say that the AI is never gonna have a run like the CMC since 70" of snow over the Chesapeake Bay has never happened, did so you can hope it's missing some of the intricate details
  18. NorthArlington101
    DC desperately wants to get #raleighed in this storm it seems. Hope not
  19. NorthArlington101
    It was touched on but this was by far the best EPS run for this threat. I'd buy the median right now. Likelihood of 3"+ also not too shabby
  20. NorthArlington101
    AIFS median was a horrific drop, though. Won’t post since there are minors but DCA went from a median of like 5.5” down to 2”
  21. NorthArlington101
    Idk. I'll join @SnowenOutThere in the panic room. Hope it pans out!
  22. NorthArlington101
    Just realized the GEFS also sucks. Starting to wonder what we're doing here.
  23. NorthArlington101
    A median storm on the EPS is about nada - which is a bright red flag here, unfortunately. Even a 75th percentile storm is really meh. We desperately need the best ens and it's OP to be wrong. Good luck to us
  24. NorthArlington101
    Speak of the AIFS ens devil
  25. NorthArlington101
    Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.
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