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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    If this happens it’s high rates and crashing temperatures in the middle of the night. It’s not my concern maybe outside of right in the middle of Downtown DC (where I’m at lol)
  2. NorthArlington101
  3. NorthArlington101
    GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    WxBell crawls for GEM maps so not yet. AFD is out btw - holding on advisories. I’ll let you copy paste
  6. NorthArlington101
    RGEM holds
  7. NorthArlington101
    That’s still okay. Now the 3k… no thanks lol.
  8. NorthArlington101
    CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent.
  9. NorthArlington101
    sorry one more EPS post - this is the median. While the ens are obviously less dispersive so close in, it's still nice to see they very strongly agree with the OP (as opposed to yesterday where the 3-5" 12z EURO run was an outlier of outliers)
  10. NorthArlington101
    It's probably past time to look at the EPS but this is notably more generous/widespread than 06z, fwiw.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand: It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    EURO a little futher southwest with the best stuff. Gonna be a nice DC-Annapolis run
  14. NorthArlington101
    GFS not a "make everyone happy" run but it did get wetter and expand it's band a bit.
  15. NorthArlington101
    hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide
  16. NorthArlington101
    If I was to make a snow map I think I'd make it look like the 3k NAM. Looks about right.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, the drier sucks. Storm moves out faster - looks more like other models TBH. NAM being soooo wet was an aberration. This is fine with me but I'd prefer the 06z
  18. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM looks pretty darn similar through 42. Maybe a juuust hair south. Don't have the nice maps yet.
  19. NorthArlington101
    48hr HRRR owes me an inch for today still. Always prefer to have every piece of guidance snow on me but I'm okay losing this one. I'll hug the 12k NAM, which promised @Bob Chill 4" of snow today at 12z yesterday. I'm sure that's panned out well.
  20. NorthArlington101
    works for me!
  21. NorthArlington101
    RRFS replaces the NAM, right? Nobody should look at its 18z run for this storm, lol
  22. NorthArlington101
    I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm
  23. NorthArlington101
    I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since
  24. NorthArlington101
    NAM much better
  25. NorthArlington101
    Yep - definitely a hold. EURO itself is an outlier to its outlier members with how snowy it is but nice to have it in the range of outcomes. 12z EPS mean - the median is essentially identical. 12z EPS 90th percentile
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