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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    12k NAM starts as a bit of rain but kinda looks like a bit of a smackdown
  2. NorthArlington101
    Imagine LWX follows for NEMDPUMMELED
  3. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, not sure why the vibes nosedived. EURO was a step back? Otherwise we’re as all systems go as we can be for this for those who were already in the game. Was always going to be a bit of a nowcast scenario.
  4. NorthArlington101
    NWS has DC at 2”. I’m bummed that the jackpot zone will so clearly not be here, but I feel much better here than I would in Loudoun - no offense. I don’t think we’re cooked. Might change my mind in a few hours though
  5. NorthArlington101
    It had been skunking us for days but is now essentially identical to the Euro
  6. NorthArlington101
    EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Temp crash is gonna be stressful and I might end up wrong but I’m not worried about it if the rates that are promised come. Kind of a chicken and egg thing. If it’s ripping and dark and temps are crashing, we're fine. If we’re stuck on the SW end and fringed, the UKIE is probably doing an okay job. I’m just thrilled with the WSW (west-southwest, not winter storm warning - tho I do think NEmd gets upgraded later) trend this morning. Hope that runs to game time.
  8. NorthArlington101
    UKIE is in the range of models on precip but it insists it’s mostly rain. Gonna first lean on all other models, the NWS, and WPC on ptype
  9. NorthArlington101
    Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us
  10. NorthArlington101
    ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here
  11. NorthArlington101
  12. NorthArlington101
    Nice jump west
  13. NorthArlington101
    NAM is actually gonna reel the mountains and Loudoun crowd back in
  14. NorthArlington101
    NAM looks fine. Shouldn’t be a disaster. Least the 12k
  15. NorthArlington101
    It’s an IMBY sport, but do think people should always try and caveat their statements about who it’s a best run for, lol. Really like the LWX map. Probably wouldn’t change a thing. It’s about time NE MD got pummeled. Feeling like 1.5” or so is the bar for DC. Wouldn’t want to be any more west or south of that.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Delayed due to a data issue. Not worth staying up for
  17. NorthArlington101
    UKIE isn’t exactly awesome at thermals. Given nothing else showing so much precip lost to rain, I’m gonna do a weenie move and toss the snow output and just look at the QPF
  18. NorthArlington101
    Is the 00z out? I’ve only got 18z on WxBell, which wasn’t awesome, so it would be a good shift.
  19. NorthArlington101
    18z EURO held - just a little drier
  20. NorthArlington101
    Oh trust me I’m very concerned about it. I’d be less concerned if I was you just based on locations but we both could get mega screwed here. What’s funny is if things hold we’ll just be waiting for that band to form and praying for our nowcasting. Can’t really even watch it come in.
  21. NorthArlington101
    If this happens it’s high rates and crashing temperatures in the middle of the night. It’s not my concern maybe outside of right in the middle of Downtown DC (where I’m at lol)
  22. NorthArlington101
  23. NorthArlington101
    GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled
  24. NorthArlington101
  25. NorthArlington101
    WxBell crawls for GEM maps so not yet. AFD is out btw - holding on advisories. I’ll let you copy paste
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