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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    UKIE is in the range of models on precip but it insists it’s mostly rain. Gonna first lean on all other models, the NWS, and WPC on ptype
  2. NorthArlington101
    Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us
  3. NorthArlington101
    ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    Nice jump west
  6. NorthArlington101
    NAM is actually gonna reel the mountains and Loudoun crowd back in
  7. NorthArlington101
    NAM looks fine. Shouldn’t be a disaster. Least the 12k
  8. NorthArlington101
    It’s an IMBY sport, but do think people should always try and caveat their statements about who it’s a best run for, lol. Really like the LWX map. Probably wouldn’t change a thing. It’s about time NE MD got pummeled. Feeling like 1.5” or so is the bar for DC. Wouldn’t want to be any more west or south of that.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Delayed due to a data issue. Not worth staying up for
  10. NorthArlington101
    UKIE isn’t exactly awesome at thermals. Given nothing else showing so much precip lost to rain, I’m gonna do a weenie move and toss the snow output and just look at the QPF
  11. NorthArlington101
    Is the 00z out? I’ve only got 18z on WxBell, which wasn’t awesome, so it would be a good shift.
  12. NorthArlington101
    18z EURO held - just a little drier
  13. NorthArlington101
    Oh trust me I’m very concerned about it. I’d be less concerned if I was you just based on locations but we both could get mega screwed here. What’s funny is if things hold we’ll just be waiting for that band to form and praying for our nowcasting. Can’t really even watch it come in.
  14. NorthArlington101
    If this happens it’s high rates and crashing temperatures in the middle of the night. It’s not my concern maybe outside of right in the middle of Downtown DC (where I’m at lol)
  15. NorthArlington101
  16. NorthArlington101
    GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    WxBell crawls for GEM maps so not yet. AFD is out btw - holding on advisories. I’ll let you copy paste
  19. NorthArlington101
    RGEM holds
  20. NorthArlington101
    That’s still okay. Now the 3k… no thanks lol.
  21. NorthArlington101
    CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent.
  22. NorthArlington101
    sorry one more EPS post - this is the median. While the ens are obviously less dispersive so close in, it's still nice to see they very strongly agree with the OP (as opposed to yesterday where the 3-5" 12z EURO run was an outlier of outliers)
  23. NorthArlington101
    It's probably past time to look at the EPS but this is notably more generous/widespread than 06z, fwiw.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand: It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here
  25. NorthArlington101
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