NorthArlington101

For those still watching, the 12z NAM was a slight shrink south from its 06z position. Perhaps it'll get more in line with the 3k. Heckuva model war going on. Canadians & NAM vs. EURO/FV3/ICON vs. GFS/WRFs. Differences in those camps is going to mean a lot for the southern half of the subforum.

It’s Canada vs the World. RGEM & HDRPS are real close too and are big hits for Central VA.

Gets a little past RIC. Not near the extent of the ICON/RGEM though.

We got 48 hours to pull an NYC in the 2016 Blizzard.

Early December 2017 had three things trend better in a week, mostly for MD iirc.

Repeat after me... I'm not getting suckered in by the F-team models... I'm not getting suckered back in by the F-team models.

NWS has the best graphics. From reading the LWX AFD, someone else (or a computer?) must make these.

Snow doesn’t get out of the most southern edge of Virginia on the GFS, and it barely snows there. Close the blinds.

18z EURO, FWIW.

GEFS a slight improvement. IIRC, heavier stuff has been shifted more south but northern extent is a little nicer.

Speaking of the GEFS... the mean (sorry if this was posted already) is godawful. This needs to turn around ASAP

18z FV3 is a big swing and a miss, .1" of QPF makes it up to just south of Fredericksburg or so. See it here: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov

GEFS essentially identical to 6z just based off the snowmap. better zoom. It is a slight improvement. Mean jumped an 1" or so for DCA.

DCA: 11/16 BWI: 11/2 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/16 Tiebreaker: 4.7"

Wait... if our events are busting because we are in a drought, and hence it can’t rain/snow in a drought, are we literally going to be stuck in a drought forever? Has someone done the math?! Cancel the next 50 winters until global warming moves the ocean close enough to help us out.

I have a decent chunk of some of the free snow totals maps going back a week. I'll try and get those off of my phone and put them in an album at some point.

I had turned on TWC. The night before I had looked at my Local on the Eights and was stunned to see the 18-24 inch forecast. I knew what was coming, but couldn't grasp it until the night before. I barely got any sleep, and had the radar on. I dosed off, woke up at six, and saw the most impressive blob of white over DC, with no way out of it. Easily the best moment of my weather life, and truly got me interesting in snow, rather then hurricanes. I have a saved photo of that radar still that I'm going to try and dig out so I can remissness.