NorthArlington101

Yeah, probably about a ~20-30 mile jump south. Would just be noise if some of us in Central VA didn't need every mile. it actually bumped the heavy stuff a hair more north, but it's a pretty strong cutoff. still close... I can hear DT honking from my house

My confused emoji aside (you said this with barely any of it out) I would expect this to come north a bit more... confluence looks to have backed off and is weaker in general. We'll see.

This is the upgraded National Blend of Models product, right?

EURO continues to cave and goes more north/snowier in North Carolina.

Also, FWIW, the 06z EPS was slightly interesting, only in the sense that I think a clear trend emerges. Most of the runs that have a storm consistent with what the other models are showing (a moderate snowstorm for the Carolinas) do get snow into at least the central part of our subforum, if not slightly further north. Is it a lot of snow? No. But if the snowier Carolina solutions should be taken seriously, it shows there is an opening for some flakes.

if you need me, I'll be hugging the GEFS

EURO caved and shows snow for the Carolinas now. Decent jog north that puts it better in line with other guidance.

I already regret the above post. Either way... I’m officially beyond interested as a joke. Couple more north bumps and I’ve got my second best event of the year. If it was us in the jackpot zone, we’d be sweating these north trends a little bit.

screw it, I’m going full Snowchaser. These are totally different storms but I can’t help notice the similarities here.

if this Friday storm comes back I should be made a moderator. or something

Since you're busting out the SREFS... pretty big jump northward. 21z: 15z

not good enough for any of us, but a significant step in the right direction.

GEFS took a positive jump. vs 12z

Made a separate thread for the Friday deal just to separate productive LR discussion from discussion of our likely cloudy Friday.

Game on. Let's separate discussion from the true LR to an event that is now firmly in the short-run. Creating a thread can't make it any worse.

not really our subforum but this is worth memorializing

the EURO and UKIE both are pretty pathetic for everyone. still might test my threat luck anyways

GFS took a solid jump north... it’s close for Central VA. Might make a thread if the 18z NAM looks decent to at least separate this event and the LR chat.

Casual run-to-run shifts on the CMC. No biggie.

I'm not really qualified to make this post, but here is my attempt at extremely informal analysis. Only doing this because I've been interested in this storm and this storm is low stakes so if I'm wrong it can hopefully be a teaching moment rather than me being burnt at the stake. Please correct me if I'm wrong -- its very likely I could be. I think (and if this is wrong ignore the whole post) what made the 18z ICON such a wacky/promising run was that the vort digs more over Tennessee. Looking at the 00z run, you can see the ICON backs off on this dig a decent bit, which obviously sucks. That said, the 00z GFS made positive steps in that direction and have been for some time now. 00z GFS: NAM is too long-range to really look at but I didn't hate how it shifted from 18z to 00z either. I don't necessarily know what I'm talking about, but I don't hate the progress we've made today. I'm obviously slightly more optimistic than others because Charlottesville is a better spot to be in here than somewhere in NOVA or N MD, but I think this is worth a look still.

Yep, I'll take any little positive trend I can get. Flurries are definitely a win. Verbatim it shows the second biggest event of the year in Charlottesville actually lol.

North Carolina clearly deserves it more than we do all that said, it was a big shift in the right direction. I’d take one more of those

I realize that I'm tracking what is almost certainty a loser but the 12z EPS was a step up based on raw mean snowfall. I'll let someone else (if they still care) do a better analysis to find out why. 12z: 06z: