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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Managed to hit a lot of these without snow having even begun in most spots yet. Godspeed everyone. 30.5/22
  2. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, if your starting out with sleet/ice it’s probably gonna be tough. Good/bad news is temps are gonna be marginal.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Good to see you my Cville friend. Gonna partially rely on your obs for my house down there. Hope it flips to some snow eventually!
  4. NorthArlington101
    29/22
  5. NorthArlington101
    Couldn’t fall back asleep, so here we are. CAD push is slightly better on 10z HRRR. Looks like DC holds on to snow for an extra hour. Every little bit helps.
  6. NorthArlington101
    I’m about to call it quits for another three hours before I continue HRRRcasting/wishcasting, but check out the current HP vs the modeled HP on this site: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 Currently shows a 1038mb HP just north of the NY/VT border. Forecast for this time period seems to have been for a 1034mb. Dunno what this means for cold scouring/LP position later, just an observation.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Scoured the Internet to find RAP data to get a tiebreaker for HRRR/NAM. RAP looks like the HRRR. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
  8. NorthArlington101
    I'm going to bed before it takes my snow away at 04z. Good luck everyone!
  9. NorthArlington101
    please
  10. NorthArlington101
    honestly, I might take it back. it oscillates back and forth. I still think the models are having trouble figuring out exactly where to place the MSLP. Not that I expect it to bail us out at this point. Anyways, these were the panels I was looking at. 00z 18z
  11. NorthArlington101
    ^ looks like it depend what maps you use. Could easily be 33 and rain or ya could call it wintry mix at 21. Lot of people on the edge. DCA doesn't even get above 33.
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Fine, I'll say it. The high is currently stronger than modeled. Current analysis: What was progged:
  14. NorthArlington101
    this is your way of saying you think we're gonna boom a bit without committing to it... right?
  15. NorthArlington101
    All the stations near me are down to 33. Even a couple 32 degree readings. Really think we got a shot at keeping temps lower than progged. 33/22 in N Arlington near the FFX border, ~360ft
  16. NorthArlington101
    you got a favorite site you use to see cloud cover?
  17. NorthArlington101
    Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign. 18z 12z
  18. NorthArlington101
    Just for fun... GEFS probs.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    Averaging the stations near me and going 35/21. Feel like it’s running a little colder than progged.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Point-and-click (and the WSW) would suggest I've got a better shot at having fun/seeing snow in Charlottesville... but I think I'm too lazy to make the drive to see maybe an extra 1-2" with a crusty top. Feel like the boom odds might be slightly better in Arlington anyways. That's what I'm telling myself, at least. Never got quite as warm today as it was supposed to -- missed the high by about 3 degrees. 38/22.
  22. NorthArlington101
  23. NorthArlington101
  24. NorthArlington101
    west. my bad. i'll edit it.
  25. NorthArlington101
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