NorthArlington101

HRRR is doing something funny at the end of its run. Entertaining for the SEMD/Delaware crew. Almost surely a hallucination though. Worlds apart from other guidance

HRRR gonna be north a bit, which is better for most of us

12k is def HRRR like with the best stuff rolling through Cville - actually a fairly impactful little band. 3K says it hopes everyone likes .5". But both are improved

D.C. (Union Station - 33') NW Arlington (358') 12/05: 1.5" 1.5" 12/14: 0.4" 1" 1/25: 8" (SN/IP) 8.5" (SN/IP) TOTAL: 9.9" 11"

HRRR has more utility than the SREFs but agree with the sentiment. Just wanted to kick off the 18z cycle with a decent run!

HRRR still pretty juiced but it shifted things south this run. Not gonna worry about this one much til tomorrow... would really just like a dusting

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I'm still at a C. One 5" snowstorm with sleet isn't gonna get me past average. Would be a C- if the snowpack wasn't sticking around.

Too late to trend this one north too, huh

Sounds like you’re jealous of my 0.4” incher. I think we might even be able to add a couple tenths if we squint

Least the FV3 doesn't blank us. I'd lock this up if I was able to

This is gonna be a weak little system. Would be nice to get a consensus for a 1" strip somewhere but it may never happen. Might just need to wait til the day of and see.

Every model has their strengths and weaknesses. The Euro apparently can’t handle sleet/freezing rain. The 3k is bad at WAA precip total. The GFS isn’t a functional model. Gotta use your tools right.

Clipper after clipper. I can deal with it They aren’t gonna perform well with mesoscale details but I’d be okay trusting its general output at this range. Whether it’s .05 or .15 of snow is a minute detail that I would trust it to grasp atp

AI had it but literally a dusting really… T-.5”. AI liked the Friday clipper better as well

AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic?

Might be overdoing the praise for the AIFS in some cases but its pretty darn compelling, imo. At least equal to the EURO in terms of midrange synoptics.

Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.

Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout.

Only able to see precip total maps, but the non-AI euro has a northern band and a southern band kind of situation for Wednesday. Good chunk of Maryland squeaks out 1” or so - rest is too south for most of us.

Juiced up a little bit, yeah. Still fairly fringed. Belongs in the other thread really but AIFS ticked better for our southern folks for Saturday. Somewhat decent tick given its usual stubbornness in the last few hours. Might mean an extra inch for someone. But if you buy it verbatim really only a super cool storm for eastern NC/barrier islands at this point.

AIFS says no - south. Might join @stormtracker and say goodnight on this one soon!

Hope it pans out! Florida flurries are cool, at least south of the Panhandle. Panhandle gets as much snow as we do these days.