Taking zero credit for this analysis but what I’m hearing is that our low is developing too late and rapidly occluding - meaning we aren’t pulling in enough moisture in time. Solution could be a little more dig.
Meh - think that extra dig isn’t insignificant for a lot of us but it’s the kind of thing we won’t figure out at this range anyway so not worth worrying about.
mostly just want to see the EURO show anything substantial. Like even 2” would be nice