NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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AI EURO would be a nice start to the season
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Pulling to banter - it was a foot of snow! I think it being finals was a big motivator and this was pre-Covid so things felt less flexible then they’ve become after. We had classes off for ~4” my senior year in 2022.
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Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!
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It’s a hit - least a modest one
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torch
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Canadian is out and it's an ice storm... feel like the Canadian always goes ice. Temps are genuinely below freezing DC metro and east almost the whole event but it's close
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FWIW - AI is more optimistic then the EPS again, so just assume the EPS shows none of this, basically. I'd say 12/50 are a "hit" for the window around the 3rd ... and that's being a tad generous
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Ends up too warm for close D.C. metro but some snow elsewhere. Works at this range
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Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.
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Pretty clear “threat” window on the AIFS in the first few days of December. More likely to be on the outside, but hey, it’s something to watch This is more aggressive then the regular EPS and even a bit more then the GEFS, fwiw
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I’ll take the under
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GFS has some light Turkey Day snow showers for Central VA on Thursday - odd looming outcome. Some flurries for parts of MD Saturday night as well.
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Shot around the 2nd and shot around 6th is how it gets there.
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I understand and feel the frustration but I can’t get with jumping in mid-November. Things change too much, though admittedly it rarely feels like they change positively. I realize this kind of winter doesn’t satisfy you much, but when it can just takes one storm to hit climo, it’s way too early to quit
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Good god the LR thread. Maybe they are right, idk. It’s also November 23rd
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Don't tell them Eric Webb is getting excited about early December snow... for New Mexico
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Some of the earliest reapings on record today
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The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to
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Respectable GEFS mean for this range in November, for the very little that’s worth. Can’t see individual members, would wager it’s pulling in a heavy outlier or two.
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I’m eyeing it only because UVA has a date with destiny that Saturday. Snow game would be amazing but unlikely. Cold rain game would suck. Kinda hoping it just poofs.
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I don’t think anyone would’ve bet any sort of money on November snow lol. I’ll concur insofar as if we have another hyped December pattern only to get shut out I’m gonna make a New Years’ resolution to never care about December again. Might just not be able to snow here anymore til January
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Been there - picturing the water ride up the wheel to terrible places.
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Coulda been a good snowstorm a month from now. Alas
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I feel like some years the weeklies show jack squat in December. My only takeaway is that we’ll probably have an opportunity or two
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Yeah, right when I say the GFS has no company, the EURO pretty much spits out the same outcome. Temps are still bad... wouldn't exactly expect any of this to stick, but it's interesting. If the moisture didn't get totally shredded from 126 - > 132 it might've had more blues.
