NorthArlington101

If we play our cards right we might all manage to get to 0.5" this week!

Seems to be slightly overdoing the cooling caused by snow cover.

I think you can be a snow weenie without being a cold weenie. I want it to stick around for 3 days. Then I don’t really care. It’s nice looking, but I’m cold!

Think I’ve blocked that one out actually. Might need you to fill me in

The GFS had it’s best run in a bit

Just enough to miss us for the clipper and the coastal! Epic

HRRR is doing something funny at the end of its run. Entertaining for the SEMD/Delaware crew. Almost surely a hallucination though. Worlds apart from other guidance

HRRR gonna be north a bit, which is better for most of us

12k is def HRRR like with the best stuff rolling through Cville - actually a fairly impactful little band. 3K says it hopes everyone likes .5". But both are improved

D.C. (Union Station - 33') NW Arlington (358') 12/05: 1.5" 1.5" 12/14: 0.4" 1" 1/25: 8" (SN/IP) 8.5" (SN/IP) TOTAL: 9.9" 11"

HRRR has more utility than the SREFs but agree with the sentiment. Just wanted to kick off the 18z cycle with a decent run!

HRRR still pretty juiced but it shifted things south this run. Not gonna worry about this one much til tomorrow... would really just like a dusting

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I'm still at a C. One 5" snowstorm with sleet isn't gonna get me past average. Would be a C- if the snowpack wasn't sticking around.

Too late to trend this one north too, huh

Sounds like you’re jealous of my 0.4” incher. I think we might even be able to add a couple tenths if we squint

Least the FV3 doesn't blank us. I'd lock this up if I was able to

This is gonna be a weak little system. Would be nice to get a consensus for a 1" strip somewhere but it may never happen. Might just need to wait til the day of and see.

Every model has their strengths and weaknesses. The Euro apparently can’t handle sleet/freezing rain. The 3k is bad at WAA precip total. The GFS isn’t a functional model. Gotta use your tools right.

Clipper after clipper. I can deal with it They aren’t gonna perform well with mesoscale details but I’d be okay trusting its general output at this range. Whether it’s .05 or .15 of snow is a minute detail that I would trust it to grasp atp

AI had it but literally a dusting really… T-.5”. AI liked the Friday clipper better as well

AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic?

Might be overdoing the praise for the AIFS in some cases but its pretty darn compelling, imo. At least equal to the EURO in terms of midrange synoptics.