NorthArlington101

It runs delayed, but it was all snow for DC-north yesterday. Sleet creeping nearby

I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.

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The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+

foot of snow 10:1 in DC?

Looks like a pretty solid thump before sleet/dryslot... can start mentally trying to get comfortable with that as a "worst" case outcome.

Duration really increased. All that missing QPF is on the backside

Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell

what kind of work do we do, lol

Sleet line a hair north, but you'd like to just call it a wobble. Still a money panel

Right, it's an IMBY sport. So you know exactly why some people would be less happy than the trend from last night - that's the only point I'm poorly trying to make! Hope you get crushed (and me too, ofc)

Comparison is the thief of joy and in a vacuum we'd all be happy with the (current) modeled outcomes, but surprised you can't appreciate why someone in SoMD wouldn't be as happy as you might be right now. I think we'll all be fine but some folks are more on the edge here for totally understandable reasons.

I think there is almost no question we at least get a 5-10" thump. The question of the day, which is hopefully resolved by the end of the day so we can set expectations, is whether those of us in the typically sleet-vulnerable areas need to be bracing for snow or sleet after that flip. Didn't look like an issue yesterday so I think folks are appropriately riled up.

One thing worth noting on the NAM, perhaps, is that it seems very skeptical of freezing rain as the dominant non-snow Ptype. Lot of sleet, even way down south.