NorthArlington101

Up to 27 degrees in DC vs. 21 degrees at my family’s house in Arlington. Some tight temperature gradients going on today.

Also a glaze starting to appear in DC. Definitely a sleet/freezing rain mix. Not sure what to think about the next few hours. Definitely haven’t felt compelled to go outside since this morning beyond just observing a sleet pack for a second.

Pure sleet rip page. Hard to not do the “what if it was snow” but this is cool. No idea how much.

I probably should’ve cleared my “snowboard” but figured it was gonna be tough to keep track of. Just trying to appreciate what’s falling one way or the other… it’s ripping pellets

Modeling consensus is definitely that this misses us off shore. Would rather not wait til 384 so just gonna keep tracking it until it’s off the end. Why not.

I’m still crossing my fingers and hoping never… but let us know if ya’ll do. Probably means we’re a few hours from a flip. Send the dumping sleet up here too! I want to truly get sandblasted

Thank you for calling that out… never would’ve seen it. Miller A factory… all time weenie run.

Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.

Only good if OPM gives another day off.

You still pinging @katabatic ? Realize now that Wisp isn't that far from you... would be quite the difference.

You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would. Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk

This is the last time the forum underestimates NAM thermals... until the next marginal event. Seems wrong calling this a "marginal event" when the temperature is in the teens.

Alright... next. The AIFS and AIGEFS ens are still interesting for next Sunday - moreso the AIFS. Would want to see this come back on an OP run in the next couple of days to make me think we have a real chance.

@bnchodid you use your yardstick?