LVLion77

50/50 sleet snow this far north in Allentown. The forecasts heading into this were wrong. .

Interesting obs from some of you to the south considering it is all sleet here in Allentown. .

The last thing I expected to wake up to in the Allentown area is sleet, and sleet it is. The other surprise is a ragged looking coastal storm that has not yet taken over - hence the sleet. .

Snow and sleet battling here in Macungie, i thought snow was back at 100% but sleet now back big time. I think the line is literally wavering north and south along I78 / US22. About 7” here. .

The front end thump is so important as the wraparound is generally over-predicted in these storms and often disappoints. It is tough to say what will happen with this one as the nowcasting presentation is questionable to our southwest but let’s see what happens as the low cranks up further to see if it fills. .

Mix of snow and sleet here in macungie, next door to allentown. That line us blasting north. .

I may have been off by a few hours as the weakening continues and is only at 110 now on a steady march down in intensity(incredible considering how recent we were looking at a 185 mph behemoth) but the undeniable fact is that this thing had wound down quicker than most anticipated because it sat and spun over cool waters caused by itself. It really looks beat up right now. Sometimes we ignore the fundamentals with these storms -ie exceptional oceanic warmth is required to maintain intensity. Let’s see if it really has begun the move north and if it can regain any intensity over the gulf stream. .

I remember a similar intensity hurricane that everybody from these boards to the nhc themselves said would survive intact near peak intensity after heading inland along the cuban coast. A couple truths have not been learned by many - land and cooler water - damages hurricanes. Dorian’s stall is murdering it with the island interaction but more importantly the upwelling cooler water. I think we will he looking at a cat 1 by noon tomorrow. .

Everything came together in the last few days showing a northern curve out to sea. It is significantly weaker right now and will continue to weaken. Outside of the poor souls in the Bahamas, this will wind down as primarily an ocean storm affecting maritime interests. Incredible storm to track over the last few days. .

Hundreds of weather wienie wishcasters are waking up right now with disappointment that their dream of 200 mph Dorian heading wsw at 10 mph to bring the apocalypse to florida is not going to happen as this thing is, gasp, following solid guidance in terms of slowing down to a crawl as he prepares to turn north and gradually weaken. .