wishcast_hater

Moderate snow here. Everything covered, plows and salters out. Radar looks weak but future radar insists it’s going to fill back in. Not buying it. .

Ice pellets here. Accumulating on both paved and unpaved surfaces. 33 degrees. Still under a WWA but local forecast only calling for MAYBE 1". Definitely colder here now than this time yesterday.

Interesting ride down the Taconic this morning. When I got to 1200 feet there was snow for a mile or so but it was gone as I descended down the mountain. .

WWA issued to my area starting at 4pm. 1-4” of snow with locally higher amounts. I wouldn’t mind that. At least it replaces what I lost. Just checked my cameras and I still have a snowpack. I guess it didn’t rain that heavy overnight.

Rain snow mix. . Elevation 740'

Just drove up from Harlem to Dutchess County. Raining and 40 degrees down there and rain all the way to Putnam County then it stopped, temp dropped to 36 with light snow. Got home and figured it would be a degree or two colder here but its 36 with nothing going on at the moment. Temps are pretty uniform from Westchester to up here. I figured I might have a shot at snow as forecast highs for the entire week were incorrect and I stayed below freezing all week and of course today you can feel the difference.

I'm South East of Hyde Park but my elevation is about 740' in Beekman. My area tends to do much better than Poughkeepsie due to my elevation. Still holding out for something instead of rain as I still have about 4" still on the ground.

That would be great for me. At this point I would take anything other than rain.

Hopefully the coastal low will form more south and east for us. NWS said that the GFS model has a bias of forming the storms farther south and east than the other models out there. That was in there discussion last night.

From my local NWS office: As for precipitation type, this is where confidence decreases. We are confident that higher elevation areas will see mostly snow from this system, with impressive snowfall totals in many cases of 12-18" or more. However, snowfall accumulations are much less certain for valley areas despite models having generally converged on a low track from eastern NJ over Long Island and then over RI. At this time, thinking that even valley locations see snow to start. Snow quickly transitions to rain along the I-84 corridor. Further north, the transition is expected to take longer, with the Capital District potentially seeing snow through 7-11z before the changeover begins. However, there are several complicating factors, and a temperature difference of just a degree or two could make the difference between several hours of snow and several hours of rain. Some of these complicating factors include: the fact that radiational cooling may lead to temperatures below those expected by model guidance to start the day Thursday. Furthermore, with a cold high to the northeast, we will likely see some cold air damming, which is often underestimated by models. Also, strong forcing for ascent will likely lead to an overlap of strong omega with the DGZ, and we may see dynamic cooling where this heavier banding of precip sets up; also, if snowfall rates are high enough we could see accumulating snow where temperatures are 33-34F. On the flip side, a warmer outcome is possible if a) clouds move in quicker than expected tonight, b) if precip is lighter in the Hudson Valley due to downsloping, and c) because the surface high is further northeast than is ideal. After taking all of these factors into account, the decision was made to increase snowfall totals slightly in our latest forecast for valley areas, especially from the Capital District northwards. Overall, this will be a long duration event that will begin Thursday evening and last into the beginning of the long term period. When all is said and done, light to moderate snowfall accumulations are expected for valley areas, with heavy to possibly significant snowfall accumulations in the higher elevations. We will continue to monitor latest trends and update the forecast as new data becomes available My buddy lives near Monticello, he is expecting 16" of snow....lucky bastard

If history tells us anything its that when the models show rain its pretty much a lock. Sucks because I have a nice little snowpack in my neighborhood.

Last night at the homestead. .

Measured 4” around 6pm and snowblowed the driveway. Last hour moderate snow again. Probably get another inch before it’s done. Pulled the kids around the neighborhood on the quad earlier before the plows came by. Definitely more like Christmas now. Love it. .

4” here in Dutchess. Took out the quad and sleds and pulled the kids around. Had a blast. .

Upgraded again for an extra inch. 3-6” now. Yay. .

I don’t think I have any left after graduating 30 years ago. [emoji23] .

3-5” for my area. I’m sure school will be delayed if not canceled the way our society is today. .

You have a lot of faith. It seems that every model that was upgraded has in fact been a downgrade all while we are supposedly more technologically advanced. Watching my forecast for the past 2 weeks is like the proverbial carrot and the mule. It keeps showing cold weather ahead but keeps pushing it into the future. .

Too bad we don't have access to the old GFS. Like rolling back the OS on your computer or firmware to the earlier version that actually works.

I'm 48 years old, my parents are 70 and my grandmother is 98 - Never have they heard of school being dismissed early due to thunderstorms. I'm pretty sure we have all gone through thunderstorms WORSE than what's forecasted for today. Our culture is just over the top in regards to fear. At this point we should all NEVER leave the house. So you post about the tornado - Now what if students died at HOME from the tornado instead of school? It's unhealthy to live this way.

Never in my life have I seen this - My kids school just called and are dismissing early based on the severe weather forecasts. We are a WEAK people, pathetic.

I work for the Department of Environmental Protection here in NYC and I can tell you that the water is MUCH cleaner than it has been in almost 100 years. In the mid 80's the North River Waste Water Treatment Plant was the final Treatment Plant to come online and ended the practice of NYC expelling waste water (human waste, soaps, detergents, grease etc.) from entering the waterways. As we monitor the waterways we can see aquatic life returning to the area which we have not seen in many years. I do take exception to the "science being settled" comment as shut down of debate is not true science and therefore becomes a narrative.

Your predictions were no better. You called for this storm to trend west and the southeast ridge to pump up warm air. So in the end you were wrong, I wouldn’t be bragging, I would go back into hiding until next season.

29 degrees heavy blowing snow. Plows out.

Jim Cantore just happens to be broadcasting live from that area. Been snowing since 8:45 all surfaces covered here. Wind is howling as well.