Need to also realize that on the northern fringes there is going to be a lot of subsidence and dry air to overcome so would keep expectations in check riding the northern edge.
Yup - as often happens, we see the overcorrection north on the models for a couple of suites only to settle somewhere in the middle of the guidance or in this case the southern end of it.
Looking at the icon at 78 and you would think for sure a good storm is coming. Confluence just eats it up. Southern NJ does really well in set tups like these.
edit: and this time it wasn’t all eaten lol. Just another solution at this point.
I’m not currently on board with ICON depiction but it begins to show us our envelope. Icon probably the best case scenario for this sub forum. Worst case is obviously being completely dry. verbatim, icon is a nice 3-6 event for most
Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point.
I’d take the 6” from todays run for the first storm and run even if the second didn’t come to fruition… that’s how bad the past couple of years have been. Only 200+ hours out, what could go wrong lol
Not great but I’ve seen flakes four of the last five days and will most likely have a white Christmas. Been cold much of the month and leading up to Christmas. December’s a win in my book.
Picked up another half inch and snowing heavily. Have about 30 minutes left here in morris county. What a great way to start Christmas Eve with everything freshly whitened.
Well this is awesome. Woke up middle of the night to an overperformer in my backyard. Probably close to 3” and looks like one more moderate band to push through. Another inch or so and a white Christmas may be on the table.
1” in Morristown
Overall the even we expected with everything from “just flakes” to a couple of inches.
boston doing well and Philly looks to do well as they’re currently under 30dbz bands and may get under the IVT. I think someone in Philly or south central NJ will see 4”
very nice