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BoulderWX

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  1. BoulderWX
    One more:
  2. BoulderWX
    One of the better follows so worth noting some real time analysis - all options very much on the table.
  3. BoulderWX
    What are we looking at timing wise for the onset of the precipitation?
  4. BoulderWX
    Yes sir, granted I’m always a little nervous. Agree, I’d rather have a stronger coastal with more precipitation and worry about precip type, but still not seeing support for the 6-10 from NWS unless we get that perfect track
  5. BoulderWX
    I’m nervous where I am 30 miles west of NYC. If I was in the city or along the coast I’d be keeping my expectations in check. Could be a solid storm but just as much argues the opposite
  6. BoulderWX
    Morristown - I thinking I’m in a decent spot but not seeing anything that would cause them to go with a 6-10 over a 3-6 or 4-8. We shall see
  7. BoulderWX
    Hahaha 6-10” WSW for me.. I want what the NWS is smoking this fine Friday afternoon.
  8. BoulderWX
    Expecting 2-4 here in Morris County and thinking 1-3 for NYC as it will take a little longer for accumulation to start.
  9. BoulderWX
    10 miles E/W is the difference between 0” and 7+ here in Morris County.
  10. BoulderWX
    ICON takes a step back from its 18z run with a further east solution but I’d happily take the 2-3” it’s advertising
  11. BoulderWX
    RGEM would be a heartbreaker. Only few NW suburbs get into the snows while almost all of PA sees over 7” with many at 10-15”. It’s as possible as any other solution
  12. BoulderWX
    …and we’re off LOL Seriously though, I think we start getting the general picture within the next 24 hours, and as always specifics will be nailed down in the final 24…
  13. BoulderWX
    Light snow in Morris County right now
  14. BoulderWX
    Between snow and especially ice coverage in the Deep South and up the EC, the 12z CMC is one of the crazier D10 solutions I’ve seen.
  15. BoulderWX
    06z update: ICON and GFS are both dry with Sunday/monday wave.
  16. BoulderWX
    Im in chapel hill NC next week, I don’t hate that run lol. Clearly joking, I don’t expect anything even close…
  17. BoulderWX
    Nice write up and very much agree. I’ve been on the ‘skirting’ train for this one. The last two GFS run depict what I’m thinking to some extent. A general 1-2” with the potential for up to 4” along the coast. A few changes to the synoptic pattern could cause this to yield more (or whiff to the south completely), but I do think we see some flakes Saturday.
  18. BoulderWX
    Just another run. Nothing to deduce aside from that it has a storm on the EC. GFS has been relatively consistent *with the idea* for the past 2-3 days but consistency doesn’t equate to accuracy as we all know and even still, we’ve seen even the most aggressive model for snow blank on several runs. If we still have players on the field Wednesday then we can start dissecting run to run. Until then, enjoy the possibility.
  19. BoulderWX
    111 is pivotal on this run. Up the coast or slide out to sea along Carolina coast
  20. BoulderWX
    Sure does. Very much in line with my thoughts on a more moderate system. Thinking ceiling is a 3-6” event but hopefully most would be happy with that.
  21. BoulderWX
    If you’re looking for A GFS like solution you’re setting yourself up for disappointment not only in outcome, but with every model run between now and the weekend. If you’re good with a 3-6 or 4-8 storm, you can root for a CMC like depiction which is way more realistic than the GFS and seems like a fair middle ground as of now in this synoptic setup.
  22. BoulderWX
    Yup, same here to your east in Morristown. Should pick up that inch that many of the short range models were advertising. Nice to have things whitened up to start the week.
  23. BoulderWX
    ^17 hours ago when the mood was quite different.
  24. BoulderWX
    986 exiting Delmarva @ 159 on GFS. ahhh those were the days lol. ends up hugging the coast/staying just inland in this morning’s version of whack a mole. Just another solution at this point but good to see a storm showing up consistently on models
  25. BoulderWX
    The next week on this forum would make an incredible case study in psychology. Should be *fun* to watch.
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