BoulderWX
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Not for all but many. RAPs not alone either.
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RAPs been super consistent and may be picking up on the thermal gradient in “real Time”. As some have mentioned, temps a little higher than progged so will take longer to lay in some places.
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HRRR & RAP, both in their longer range, are honing in on the best shows setting up in PA. Something to watch over the next several cycles.
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I hear ya - hoping for the best for all. Will be nice to be watching football with snow coming down.
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That’s what I’m going off of. Seeing a lot of .35 - .40 QPF so I guess I’m going 10:1 but even at 12:1 that’s 5” so not far off from what I’m saying.
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Trends are not my friend but I’ll happily take 3-4” and be happy for those who see more.
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Getting consensus now toward a 3-5 area wide event with whoever getting the best banding seeing 6-8 maybe
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Not giving it any credence but what happened to the ICON lol
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GFS is 3-5 area wide. Thinking 3-6 for most of the area is a solid call. With some places getting close to 8”
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Agree and still shows 3-5” - nice storm.
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Bullish, nice!
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HRRR looking reasonable IMO
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I ride with you on the 4-6 if I remember correctly your location. I would be very happy with that.
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2-4” area wide at 10:1
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Maybe we hold off on awarding or deriding any model until *after* the storm… unless you already know the outcome, just be patient and we can dissect which models performed best postmortem.
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You’re 100% correct re model noise. I’m still on the 4-6” train so we’re pretty close in our thoughts. Looking forward to it, especially with it coming mostly during the day.
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Yes please! Believe it when i see it though
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Admittedly I didn’t realize this was going to be such a big storm for New England. Latest hi res models give them a great storm but I’d take my Four inches in morris county and run!
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Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…
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I don’t see that… in fact snowline looks on par or maybe a couple miles N/W. Either way, it holds with its depiction
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Maybe the one solution that would make everyone happy
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Still not good for the coast and the city but a better run than 18z I suppose
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Yup.. seeing a lot of chatter on the twitter that it’s looking like it will be more amped. As much as CMC/RGEM, who knows. But nobody should be completely discounting the Canadian models
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I wanted to say this like three times and kept deleting it… you know exactly what changed
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He can be cryptic but knows his stuff.
