BoulderWX
-
Posts
1,260 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by BoulderWX
-
For sure. Went from 0.8 QPF to 0.4 in two HRRR Runs. as you said it will bounce around but it will be a relatively thin band of 0.8-1.0QPF IMO with a more general 0.4-0.6 for most. Mesos have much spottier precip compared to globals as I said yesterday I’ve always been more concerned about QPF than I am about too much mixing 21/7
-
Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up
-
In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup.
-
This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out.
-
It was great for NYC - like 8-10 @10:1
-
Im Right there with you. My official call is 3.7” with a lot of sleet 19/7
-
12Z HRRR looks really nice for NYC metro area - and yes I know it’s the long range and the HRRR lol
-
17 degrees
-
GFS looks to Hold serve at 00z
-
ICON bumps north a bit - not a huge jump but noticeable
-
Always throw out a guess for each storm - thinking 3.7” and a decent amount of sleet. (Morristown) 27 degrees
-
NAM is the only model where I’d be frustrated were it to occur but the I can’t rule it out. NYC, north and east look best ATM as well as LHV
-
Agreed 100%
-
31 - still looking like a 1pm start?
-
A mean of .4 to .6 for almost the entire subforum
-
This is the worst case portrayed and I’d still get 4 - not bad
-
I mean it’s semantics at the end of the day and they have to cut off somewhere. The main thing is the public is informed either way whether you call it an advisory or warning. An inch or two difference in projection is all that’s different. Never understood why people cared so much about that - if you’re in the borderline of warning vs advisory you clearly know it could go either way.
-
Best run yet verbatim fo mby… I really need to stop looking. It will be what it is, most likely 3-6” fo many
-
Im right by you in Morristown; also that map from DT isn’t one of his worst. lol
-
I’d also much rather a few less inches and getting a daytime snow than it all falling overnight. I like where we are
-
Looks fair
-
Mt. Holly bullish still
-
Winter Storm Warning for Sussex and Morris. 5-8
-
Miss the days when it’s wasn’t just for ratings - someone will see above 6 but many Mets are pushing wide areas of 6-10.
-
Yeah, not as robust with the precip field. off for the afternoon - but hoping for a 3-5 event still. Merry Christmas!
