BoulderWX

Higher mean for my family in Chapel Hill than me lol

Why are we talking about storms that disappeared and then came back. Obviously we know that can happen. Every storm is unique. Just as we can see things turn more positive in upcoming runs, it’s equally likely that things stay the same or trend worse. No amount of talking about past storms changed that.

This a possibility with the stronger confluence. Suppression has always been on the table.

Oooph. Looks different on pivotal. Not a great look.

It didn’t go great from 114 but it’s within. The envelope of solutions.

Better LP pressure at 108 just not reflected on the precip shield. Track more important so let’s see where it goes from here

30 w/ light/moderate wet snow

*for entertainment purposes for those around MMU* Saturday - 12Z Suite @ *10:1 ratios* - MMU - net gain or loss from 00z Friday runs - CMC: 5” (- 7.9”) - GFS: 5” (+ 5”) - EURO: 4” (-13”) - ICON: 18.3” (+ 18.1”) - UKIE: 18” (+ 11.6”) Blend Of Models = 10” Based on this suite alone, two clear and tightly clustered camps around 5 and 18 lol

Temporarily but even with that and it being furthest west of the guidance, the entire forum sees over a foot @10:1 - that was a beautiful run, and being inland I’m biased towards it but I always shoot towards the middle and don’t think it will be that far west. This is fun!

UKIE Looking great forum wide through 123. Next few frames will be telling. edit: looks like a stall between 129 and 132. Will be an epic run verbatim

I only have it to 42 - what site are you using. I’m using pivotal at 10:1 for my tracker I started last night but would love to peak ahead lol

Still going to be a nice hit for the areas I keep highlighting. Just not it’s 00z run which is to be expected that there will be run to run variances.

CMC certainly won’t be its 00z hit. Looks flatter through 114.

Yeah, that would be tough lol. At this point just glad there continues to be a signal for a big storm

Not the full evolution, but the end result is very similar to what I was just saying. A good shot of a MECS storm forum wide with best snows being along the NJ coast, NYC and points East. should be a fun couple of days of tracking.

Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed (30+ forum wide).

I forget what storm it was, maybe BDB where I was too far west and got close to 10” while 20 miles east got at least double that. My *initial* feeling is similar to that where NYC and points east do best and this would also align if you take a compromise the current guidance. I think the entire forum has a shot at our biggest storm of the year and a good potential for a MECS for many, just need to see how it unfolds. We’re 5+ days out so things can/will obviously change, just some initial thoughts.

I don’t think anything close to that will verify because that’s literally the perfect track and combination of factors, but that was one of the best fantasy runs in a 5.5 day window I’ve seen in a while. And I say fantasy not to discredit the possibility of a major storm, but as in that would be the perfect run for all of us.

LOL ICON - all of NJ, NYC, and almost all of LI get thirty on kuchera maps that I can’t post for some reason. Weenie run for sure

Will use 00z suite and 12z suites to monitor snowfall outputs for Morristown (MMU) posterity and post mortem. Using 10:1 for all for consistency. Yes I realize amounts could be higher/lower due that, but want to have one baseline. Friday Night - 00z Suite @ 10:1 ratios - MMU - CMC: 12.9” - GFS: 0” - EURO: 17” - ICON: 0.2” - UKIE: 6.4” *this post brought to you by insomnia

Euro and CMC are both dream storms for me. If they keep the same general depiction through Monday I’ll allow myself to start getting excited. Best potential we’ve had in a long time.

ICON at 00z looks somewhat similar to 18z GFS in that it hits Delaware and VA and coastal southern jersey with a nice storm before scooting OTS

Gfs looks like it will go OTS after nailing Delmarva pretty good but the idea is still there.

Big storm idea still on the table, nice. What could go wrong

00z suite was pretty epic. Trying to only check once a day since we’re still 6 days out and don’t want to get caught up in run to run noise. At this point a storm is a possibility, that’s all I got lol