radarman

Again, we have plenty of experts on this here, and you may well be one of them... so take with a grain of salt... but I've always felt that where Jay cleans up is on the lingering N/NE flow from bombing coastals in N Brunswick, etc., throwing back moisture across SE QC and the extended St Lawrence valley and they being the first beneficiary of orography. Whereas the more typical W/NW flow is fairly evenly distributed, perhaps with Mansfield even outdoing them. And SB/MRG can occasionally score big on streamers especially, but for most upslope events they certainly average less than those others further north. Even if I grant that Killington may do better than further S on westerly flow just purely based on relief, I've always kind of considered them between typical storm track paradigms, whereby they're a little too far removed from clippers and coastals that get the Berks and S Greens, and don't benefit from the seemingly daily snows that the big boys get. With temps closer to the former and moisture closer to the latter.

Sugarbush confirmed opening on the 10th today

Mostly agree but that last part I'm actually not totally sure about... Mt Snow often does better than KMart on coastals, and it's pretty rare that the R/S line hangs up between them. And for orographic snows I'm not sure the S Greens are notably different on average than Killington (are the C Greens a thing?). The height of the mountain helps a bit, but the relative narrowness of the spine there may hurt some. You are certainly the expert on upslope and I will defer.

+1 to Will for that post about 08 yesterday

you'd think I'd have caught that by the fact he called it "weather station"... been that kind of day

As long as your signal is not attenuated to extinction, the velocities are unaffected because those are derived from the phase not the power.

s band radome attenuation shouldn't be more than about 1dB and it did seem excessive... But yeah I don't have a better explanation and I don't believe the atmosphere just sh*t out that quickly

Another thing that made it very obvious was that the various color contours in the imagery all collapsed inward simultaneously the same (similar) distances, indicative of a fixed power loss offset in the entire sector.

nice catch. As someone working with X band that kind of thing happens all the time and it certainly had a familiar look to it. But one thing I noticed was that the returned power from the cell out on the ocean didn't appear to be changing very much... Could the wind be squeegee-ing away water on the east side, creating some kind of differential radome attenuation? That'd be interesting.

WaWa opening tomorrow

That's kind of like when the 12th pick of the NBA draft is taken and the announcers describe him as similar to Kobe with a little Jordan

FWIW I'm squarely under that dark band just west of the Quabbin and it's all rain at present, and not particularly heavy.

Summit cam shows like C-1"

No doubt... We were looking decent in the lead up this far east, but just totally choking on ORH's fumes right now.

back to rain here

Accums beginning here now at 540'

We're huffing exhaust from that band at present... Hardly even raining

Yeah I was wondering if he was considering those honorary CNE

What's the "accurate" clown map showing, lollis to 4"?

seemed like more northern stream involvement from early on in the run...

I might be way off base here, but doesn't the 18z gfs usually not start rolling in til 430ish. Maybe my sources are just slow?

FWIW, the GFS has not been trending east and is definitely worthy of a watch for western SNE and adjacent CNE, ENY , etc. The euro has been way west up to the last run. And toss the mesos for this event... JMO

Hoping to break the ice here this weekend but just so much uncertainty with respect to the storm and operations, pretty hard to make a plan. I'm thinking it'll be skins and the Taconics at this juncture. Guess we'll see.

Yeah. For complex, synoptic scale upper-air interactions at range I think the hi-res is often a net negative... Not inherently of course, mainly because sampling and parameterization errors can propagate more easily. Don't get me wrong, I love the nammy as much as anyone, but this would not be the type of event I'd give it too much weight, at least not yet.