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Everything posted by USCG RS
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2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P
USCG RS replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Split the difference? -
Well NYC is about to pay out some $$$
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If the NAM is correct then this may be a wider scale February 2013.
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If that H7 stays just South and East, the entire region is BURIED.
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Neither the Euro nor the NAM are giving in. Interesting. In these situations, the NAM tends to win tbh. I said NAM and win in the same sentence.. yeah.
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@jm1220 I would say that Euro is likely a bit too far North and West. A 30 mile SE shift is huge. We will see.
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Euro is Western edge and tucked. Nam is Eastern edge. We have a rather tight consensus developing.
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Yeah - Just did some research to double check myself. Turned out I was wrong. I remember when they got rid of the watches, they were contemplating losing the warings as well. Guess they overruled.
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They did. Edit: I thought they did. They only purged the watches.
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Yes. I was expecting the Pacific to pump the heights, flood the warmth and allow for several inches of rain into the Metro Area. Instead, we may end of with several inches of LEquiv snow.
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Yeah... I remember both of those were pretty good for LI.
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ICON is as good as a pop icon. Looks pretty but not much too it.
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That crippled nyc and left persons stranded on highways.
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LI may be lining up for a heck of a hit... I may need to get some crow to cook.
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I agree with you. I was worried about this from the get go and then doubted myself with the confluence. But - like I stated - I originally thought that the Coastal plain would have a hard time taking a strong hit from this.
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The pna continues to forecast going neutral, however, it keeps getting pushed back, and is now looking to potentially do so just after the storm. That withstanding, the negative tilt looks to hurt rather than help the Coastal plain and the amping looks to flood the Coastal plain. Again, I could be - and would gladly be - wrong. But just my two cents.
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I said this on another board. An interior and North hit has made the most sense to me from day one. I know I waivered with confluence... However, I don't believe this is a Coastal plain hit. The pattern hasn't supported it all winter and the Pacific is again flexing its muscles. Combined with LA Nina, I really don't see the Coastal plain taking a hard hit. That withstanding, the big cities - and more specifically - N and W, I expect these areas to take a pretty hard hit. DC and BWI are in the game as well as they will stay west of the LP. Just my opinion. I've eaten plenty of crow before, so I wouldn't mind eating more (sustained me through covid) Lastly, the waters are warm. This will favor a quicker intensification and negative tilt. Likewise, if the storm stalls and the coast takes a prolonged period of easterly winds, this bodes ominously as well.
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Any forecast for the area? Or still too early?
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