USCG RS

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft.

What type of aircraft do you pilot? That is a significant difference from a small change in the orientation. Hi Res Models should begin to pick up on this in the next 12 or so hours if true. I do wonder if the orientation, extent of the Artic HP/front is being ingested. The Euro can be rather slow in changing at times. It can be very consistent, but like the GFS, also consistently wrong.

I think it has just been a hard few years for a lot of folks, and the weather has also been rather, well, adding to frustration in various aspects. There are some very good posters on here, and on the other forums, and the large storms do bring them out.

Suppression, likely leading to much less stream interaction would be the problem for much of the Carolinas being dry and cold... no? Don't tempt... Just dont tempt.

Whatever does fall will stick, at least on grassy areas. If at night, then it sticks everywhere. The sun does here is quite something. Last week is was 28/29 with ZR and the blacktop was still wet.

This, if able to verify, would be quite catastrophic for that area. ZR predictions are always very, very fickle though. Alot actually has to go right for ZR to occur and then to actually accumulate as well.

Yeah LL WAA is going to hurt the coast here.

Wet bulbing issues

I could see that.

This is true, but the discussion gives us a glimpse into the issuing forecasts reasoning and thinking and it specifically mentions that W Bergen is upgraded and E Bergen is not. Perhaps there was a glitch or mistake in W Bergen and it should show 4-8 or perhaps the forecasting office utilized some discretion as, yes, 4-6 is WWA criteria as the average is below the 6 inch threshold required. That withstanding, 4-6 vs 4-7/8 makes very little difference and is essentially semantics and the vast majority of persons do not know the difference between a WWA and a WSW.

"QPF amounts are generally going to range from 0.40 to 0.60. Expect a swath of 5 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across the interior. Closer to the coast, amounts will range 3 to 5 inches,with locally higher amounts up to 6 possible. As a result, have converted most of the winter storm watch to a warning. The only exception was eastern Bergen County. Anywhere there was no watch and eastern Bergen county, a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect. These headlines will start at 1pm Sunday and end at 4am Monday. One area of concern was across the coastal locations, specifically Long Island and portions of coastal Connecticut, where I felt temperatures may have been too warm. I did lower temperatures here a bit mainly to account for wet bulbing. If temperatures are warmer than forecast, we may see more mixing or a slightly longer period of rain before a change over to all snow occurs." No explicit explanation, but I am guessing the concern in E Bergen is about marginal temps and perhaps W Bergen they meant 4-8 and it's just a typo or a software glitch where the county isn't necessarily being divided properly . https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It brings access to extra funds from the state and, at times, federally. State of emergencies tend to be more administrarive/technical designations than anything else alot of times.

We .. well most ... LOVE snow and other weather, but this is why it is magical when it actually comes together, not to mention historic. This isn't quite cooked yet, though admittedly its going that way. What I will say, though, is that this type of unadulterated cold is always going to lead to the chance of suppression and having the southern stream out of reach. That is why being on the boards is actually worth it in my opinion: learning and understanding what to expect and how to read through the models which can mislead us. Models are wonderful pieces of technology, but we have seen time and time again they are nothing more than tools who like to play fantasy at times and when models don't never fit into the overall pattern, they need to be highly scrutinized. That withstanding, the Eastern United States is in a great pattern. If not this time, there will be more chances and that's not because of models, it's pattern recognition. Will we cash in? Who knows. But at least we're in the game.

WNC had Helene. Maybe it's ENC turn? But... Like you said. Sure

Would anyone even be around to record it. Ie, would that be within our lifetimes anyway....

A coating by definition is to completely cover. A dusting, again by definition, is to lightly cover. Consequently, I would say a covering is more snow than a dusting.

This is pretty normal. The NAM is out to lunch many times, but it is great with mid level temps in these set ups. Likewise, globals simply don't have the resolution to handle this.

Per NWS we have light freezing rain. Appears to be plain rain from where I am standing. Fortunately, I do not see any ice buildup on trees, power lines or the roadways. (Central Greenville, SC county)

Yes. Mist decreases visibility. Likewise, there are times in which mist can be freezing as well.

Moderate Freezing Rn & Sleet central Greenville County Edit: Roads still look rather wet. Waiting to see what happens after sunset.

Wintry Mix in Simpsonville, SC

Are you Greenville County or city?