USCG RS

Geese everybody. Step off the ledge. Could this miss us? Yes. But anyone whose been following should know that by now. You have three pieces of energy and no blocking whatsoever. Models are going to change. Sit back and hold tight. There is the potential for nothing to historic. It unfortunately is a wait and see. Side note : this is why historic storms are just that: historic. They are rare. Not saying it won't happen.

Normally I would agree. However, depending on when and how this phases, a HECS is a definite possibility.

I agree with that given the pattern... However, it must be acknowledged that if this continues to amp an inland coastal is not outside the realm of possibilities. Just a possibility, yet one which must be considered.

Diurnal you say? I'll see myself out

100%. PNA is the problem here

Yeah but look at the differences at H5

I knew 2020 was the beginning of an alternate timeline

Wrote this elsewhere as well We need to stop focusing on the verbatim outcome at 7 days out. 1) GFS and EPS are East of the Euro Op 2) Pattern Recognition. Just like the writing was on the wall for the first storm which torched the coast and today's storm which became suppressed to SC/NC/VA, the pattern for this wave is more likely to support a coastal over inland. You have an advertised pattern flip, yes, but in early Feb, not late Jan. Not to mention, pattern flips are notoriously delayed, not normally the other way around. I actually spoke to this weeks ago, patterns are rather hard to change once engrained. They flip, yes, however.... seasonal variability tends to help a lot more with that. That being said, the pattern would not support a storm torching into Canada, even if it exploded. You have a very cold and dense airmass preceding this storm with reinforcing shots. I know the Euro wants to just move the HP out of the way, however, this is not how physics works. With the storm a couple of weeks back, you had a stale airmass with nothing to reinforce behind it. With this, you have a negative AO and continual reinforcements of cold air. To think that this can just cut into that is just not taking into account physics. WAA is a killer, but only when you have retreating cold air, not when you have entrenched cold air. For a storm to form -and maintain- you need several things with one of them being a constant temperature gradient. When you have a locked in cold air mass, that gradient tends to be off the coast due to the land having less of an ability to hold onto heat and water having the ability to do so. This is why you see cold fronts stall off the coast and see LP develop along coastal waters - the cold air and warm air meet over the water rather than over land when you have continual shots of cold air. Models are tools, not gods. As such, forecasting is using these models as the tools they are. When a model shows something which does not fit the overall pattern, it needs to be seriously questioned. Can it be right? Sure. Yet, as forecasters, it is your job to find out what is changing to support the solution. If it doe not make sense, take it with a HUGE grain of salt. Lastly, it needs to be recognized which models are handling the patterns the best. This pattern has been handled the most correctly by the GFS. It does not mean that the GFS is the gold standard, however, it needs to be taken into account. The Euro has had a hard time handling this pattern, and this too must be taken into account. It should be questioned as to why each model is handling a given pattern better than another. Then, use this knowledge to help you interpret. Models are tools. Treat them as such.

To be honest looking at the Indian Ocean, I would say that an MJO of phase 2 or 3 is very possible. In turn, this would mute the Feb torch.

I still think it is better than the NAM 12k. The NAM 3k in this range may be better with temp profiles, whereas the RGEM - in my opinion - is better regarding precip placement and strength, as well as LP placement.

Used to be the gold standard. Not quite as good as it used to be, however, it is still pretty deadly in this range.

As good as the NAM and 3k are with temperatures, as you said, this is such a delicate situation that a degree or two changes everything.

You made me read up on this. Very interesting.

Have a friend in Jacksonville. Not looking forward to it.

My little guy loves to he dryer with a hair dryer. Runs right into the bathroom after taking a walk when it's wet out.

It's not a bad pattern, we just simply haven't been able to get it to work yet. Screaming flow isn't helping, but everything else isn't bad. Tons of energy around

I mean "Don't Look Up" had an idea on how to do this...

Yes and no. What it normally means is you give it more computing power. Then you add different parameters in because of the excess computer power. So when you upgrade the power of a computer, you allow it to run more calculations in a much quicker fashion. As such, an upgrade is really allowing more data to be processed. This extra data - in theory - produces a more accurate result. Sometimes it will change outcomes in various directions and for this reason the algorithms are tweaked, however, an upgrade is not simply changing the software.

I agree. As has been said, this is a very delicate set up. Suppression is a threat for N Mid Atl and NE (ie North of the Mason Dixon) however, a speed up by the southern stream, a slow down by the northern, a displacement of the baroclynic zone, and more will determine where this eventually sets up. Also, we have impulses of energy racing every couple of days. This is a pattern where you have to just be patient and see how the pieces progress. For those who want snow in the NE and mid atl, this is a pretty good pattern. Just be patient. This storm is not done with or set in stone. Not to mention, we have plenty of S/Ws in both streams.

So you're going to break both their hearts and ruin our snow? You shall pay for your insolence!

Tbh, given the SSTs and artic cold behind the front.. I would place the boundary closer, rather than farther, to the coast

@LibertyBell It is because the developer was hoping the name would attract clientele (back in the late 1860s and 1870s). https://ny.curbed.com/2013/6/27/10226192/the-upper-class-brooklyn-resorts-of-the-victorian-era

To be fair, OKX had this thought process. Called for a coating, with up to an inch just NW of NYC, so they may have been a bit low, however, they called this pretty well. "The northern edge of the precip shield continues to advance northward towards the area with snow now being reported as far north as Somerset Airport in NJ. There is a sharp gradient in temperatures closer to the coast with rain along the NJ coastal plain. We are also seeing temperatures across eastern Long Island rise into the middle 30s this evening. Data coming in from the 00z OKX RAOB depicts the warming just at the surface right now, but the warm advection is increasing as indicated by strengthening low level E flow. Think some light snow should break out in the NYC metro between 00-01z and then quickly advance northward through 03-04z. Some snow may briefly mix in across Eastern Long Island, but should become plain rain as temperatures rise. Increasing S flow should overwhelm cooling from aloft and bring a change to all rain across Long Island, most of the NYC metro area by late evening and for coastal CT by midnight. Most of these places could see a coating of accumulation, and up to inch just N and W of NYC, and across S CT. Cold ground temps even as temps rise above freezing could lead to spotty light freezing rain, with SPS issued for those areas." https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Tbh, I am with you. There is more of a suppression or OTS chance here than inland runner. Given the macro-scale players, I would think that an inland runner is just about off the table. But, that's just me.

And to think.. I liked you.