USCG RS
-
Posts
2,799 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by USCG RS
-
Yeah - that is why I actually just pulled my post. I misunderstood what they were saying. BOX AFD is all in however. Heck of write up.
-
Watch 00z swing back with heavy hits across the board.
-
20,000 feet controls the sfc though. What happens at the sfc is really controlled by what takes place at the upper levels, with rather rare exception. Edit - The biggest issue I have normally seen against this has to do with the time translate to the sfc. But, this lag is normally not that long. In this particular instance, it may actually make some changes regarding sensible weather.
-
If you compare the 18z NAM with obs, the trough is essentially Neutral vs somewhat positive (on the model). As such, I would take the 18z and shift it West by 50 or so miles.
-
If you look at H25/3/5/7.... This is a beast for the area. This is why I am still thinking that this will be a pretty hard hit around here.
-
When there is a double low that actually develops, why does this happen? I have actually never understood the physic of this.
-
Unfortunately, I am pretty buried in work right now, but initially it looked incorrect. I will go through it when I have a bit more time, though half the reason I asked for confirmation. I know glancing quickly and having a desire can easily skew perception.
-
Given current OBS - Euro does not appear to be lining up. Unless I am just wishing here.. Can someone else confirm I am not crazy ?
-
Its all at H5.
-
Ill say it again - we cannot write this off, nor should any one be. We are very close to a huge hit - still. I said before this will likely come down to nowcast, and it will.
-
Doesnt phase and therefore it shoots east. Gr.
-
It appears significantly so... going to have to dive into the upper levels here and see why.
-
Because the set up is incredibly fragile. A 1 hr difference in a vorticity is the entire ball game here for some folks. You are likely to see this bounce back W at 18z for the NAM. It is so incredibly delicate.
-
Just a bit of a sloppier phase. The cleaner the phase, the more tucked this will be. A 3 hr (or less) difference is the difference of about 50-75 miles. We are not going to know that until game time.
-
8" with blowing and drifting of snow actually will. I have seen blizzard warnings for 2-4" of snow. Once for 1-3".
-
Yeah... That and I'm distracted with way too many emails right now.
-
I definitely misread that. My apologies.
-
Held par. Double Barrel low. 970ish just inside BM. Lower numbers though
-
-
Sharpness of the Ridge out West and consequently, orientation of the trough.
-
Really makes me more confident in my theory that the last month was just a weather pattern which played to the GFS biases rather than the GFS being a better model.
-
I would say - the GFS has folded.
-
Feb 2013 was right before my father passed. I will actually never forget how he explained he was so impressed that I was able to understand what was happening and the forecast I made. It was... a nice memory. Never knew blizzards and fathers were connected for some like it was for me. And again @Joe4alb my sincere condolences :/
-
Man that sucks. It's tough to lose a parent, especially one you are close to :/
-
Tbh, yes.
