USCG RS

This honestly feels like when I used to live in Long Island. Have family in MB - reportedly a mix

Simpsonville actually is not that bad...

As long as it shows us with the most snow**

Should have moved with me down South

Some of us were born old.

If someone had a picture... We would all be really thankful.....

Not with this storm. No.

You appear to be right on the cusp. Given the pattern and movement, I would not be surprised if you get a moderate hit.

Weather is a fickle mistress

New Orleans is getting crushed.

Depends. The impact of additional storm sampling depends on several factors. When a storm traverses a "no-man's land," such as the central regions of Canada, or enters from the Pacific Ocean, additional ground-based observations can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This is particularly true for storms with high potential energy and complex dynamics, where sampling plays a crucial role. This need for enhanced data is why Hurricane Hunters are deployed for both tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. Conversely, when a storm moves through a populated area with an abundance of existing data sources, additional sampling typically has a minimal impact. In essence, computer models rely heavily on data quality—better data inputs lead to better outputs. Therefore, when data is sparse, targeted sampling can greatly enhance forecasts. However, when data coverage is already robust and the storm's behavior is less volatile, additional sampling tends to yield diminishing returns.

Given the way things are going, I would say there is a good chance the trend if not finished either. The current synoptic set, combined with how juiced the LP appears to be already, I would venture to say this is going to trend NW still.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/triangle-sandhills/weather/2024/01/24/24-years-since-record-snow-storm-for-central-nc

Eric copying me... On a serious note - it is nice to see that he thinks this is a potential real trend.

Given the current changes in models, I would not be surprised to see significant changes in the 00/06z runs. Not saying there will be, just would not be surprised.