Has the NAM historically had hiccup runs like this with complex systems inside 48? We know that the crazy uncle often goes wild with too much qpf, but the other direction?
Very dependent on the position and track of the upper low as well as position and track of the second coastal low. I have very low confidence on Monday right now.
And that is not set in stone, nor do we know duration. Given recent Decembers, it is understandable to be somewhat pessimistic, but I am cautiously optimistic this time around.