White Gorilla
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Everything posted by White Gorilla
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That is what I meant. Anyway, back to next week...are any models showing icing?
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88, he just proved your point.
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Am thinking suppression is the least likely outcome. I am thinking a track into New York State given little blocking unless the weekend system can 50/50. But that would depend on extent of blocking. Even with an inland track, antecedent cold air might be tough to scour out especially low levels (ice signal?) , but that would depend on the speed of a retreating maritimes high.
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Same here, 3 inches, two hour school delay. Next one is pure rain but next week might be interesting
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Commercial or private plane?
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Beautiful 3 inch snowfall here where I reside up in Dutchess County
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About 3 inches here!
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Precip looking more organized on radar
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Intriguing, but come on...
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One can dream
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Agree. All we can say at this range is potential and that is it.
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What are the MJO and NAO projections for next week?
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How accurate is the Euro usually in these types of setups at this range?
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Expect little, hope for more.
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Wonder if it is misinterpreting a CAD setup.
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This is reminding me of a December 1986 pattern with a negative EPO and plus AO, NAO regime with frequent rainstorms that month. Lived in Central Mass that time and highly disappointed. However, Jan 87 had the switch flipped to snow and we had a record 70 inches for that month alone in Worcester, MA. It was snowstorm after snowstorm. Not saying this will happen in Jan 20, but with a very vigorous and moisture generous pattern, I think we will all score big at least once.
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No matter the latest models, this is still worth watching for any last minute changes. But yeah, keep expectations low.
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Juicier, drier, juicier, drier... Back and forth we go.
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Ah well, we take what we can get.
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How about north of NYC? Sorry don't have time to look myself
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I would say similar amounts to the north, less qpf but higher ratios.
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Wow, thanks so much for the very detailed explanation and description. Fascinating stuff! I love learning about the details. Thanks too for the fluid dynamics link. Always wanted to be a meteorologist as a kid, but math wasn't my strongest subject and I got intimidated by the prospect of engineering level mathematics in grad school. I am, however, grateful I can enjoy it as a passionate hobby at least and learn some things from the pros like you.
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Sorry if this is a stupid question, but could you please explain how higher velocity jet enhances precipitation? I understand that the high temperature contrast would lead to higher wind velocity in the jet stream, but how does that translate into enhanced lift?
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Potential is there with volatility.
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As always, timing critical on the cold and moisture intersection. If it is indeed a separate piece of energy behind the front, it could be interesting. For now, keep expectations low regardless of individual runs until we establish higher model solution continuity and consistency.
