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White Gorilla

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Everything posted by White Gorilla

  1. White Gorilla
    6 days is an eternity in the forecasting world. At least something to track.
  2. White Gorilla
    A lot teasing this winter
  3. White Gorilla
    Like a woman who keeps leading you on but you never get a date in.
  4. White Gorilla
    I am amazed at how so often a storm usually hits around Feb 5-10.
  5. White Gorilla
    For me, not until negative D1
  6. White Gorilla
    Old and ever present.
  7. White Gorilla
    Closing the shades on this one and long range snow threats won't be taken seriously by me until the threat is right over us. Winter is not over by any means.
  8. White Gorilla
    This winter so far feels like an extended late fall that is blending into a very early spring.
  9. White Gorilla
    COD is which phases?
  10. White Gorilla
    The only way for valley locations north of 84 to get a big snowstorm is a low track further southeast and more intense resulting in more dynamic cooling. Otherwise, this is an elevation snow party only.
  11. White Gorilla
    Model wobbling will continue for a while. I won't pay real attention until later Wednesday and even then, approach with caution.
  12. White Gorilla
    Beware of the bait and switch tactics by the long range models
  13. White Gorilla
    What does this translate locally?
  14. White Gorilla
    So much time to figure this out.
  15. White Gorilla
    I have seen your name with the NWS somewhere...
  16. White Gorilla
    Great point. I think the observation thus far is that models tend to go warm on us the closer we get to a particular time period when initially progged as cold and promising. Hence the pessimism and thinking that more of the same will continue. The warmth feels like the default pattern this winter.
  17. White Gorilla
    LR forecasting is incredibly challenging, hence the fun. This is why we are here. I don't know the reasons for such high model inaccuracy in the long range, but I wonder if there is a correlation between model accuracy and state of the Pacific.
  18. White Gorilla
    My ideal rest of the winter would be a very snowy Feb including a huge KU, a triple phaser with feet of snow followed by an early Spring, gradual warning to limit high flooding from snowpack melt and pleasant warmth through April and May. Many of you may agree. But alas, mother nature doesn't usually listen to anyone's wishes. :). It will probably turn out to to exact opposite given history and trends. I can see a better February for snow lovers realistically however. It won't take much.
  19. White Gorilla
    That is how it looks today. We will see how things evolve. I rule out nothing.
  20. White Gorilla
    Sounds just about right. At least it will look like winter.
  21. White Gorilla
    More needles than dendrites?
  22. White Gorilla
    We can laugh at this for sure but if the MJO goes into more favorable stages along with Atlantic and Pacific tweaks... Who knows??
  23. White Gorilla
    I always worry about a virga fest with low dews eating the initial snow further inland.
  24. White Gorilla
    Here today, gone tomorrow?
  25. White Gorilla
    MJO stage 5 doesn't help. If we can get it to 7-8-1, then we talk action
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