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White Gorilla

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Everything posted by White Gorilla

  1. The bait and switch routine is old now.
  2. At the same time, don't be the drunk guy at the end of a party when everyone went home saying "Where is everyone? The party just started!"
  3. Admit it... You still feel that little tingling of excitement... You want to suppress it... You want to ignore it... But the weenie in you can't be denied...
  4. The Dr is overworked and getting senile
  5. Thanks for breaking it down concisely.
  6. Mother Nature is laughing her arse off seeing us struggling trying to figure this out.
  7. That means it is a lock to not happen.
  8. Yup, with rainy nor easter after rainy nor easter at perfect benchmark tracks.
  9. We got a ways to go to figure this out no matter what models might say today.
  10. It doesn't have to be super arctic cold to snow, just cold enough. This time of the year, we can do it with less than ideal cold air, but it is still a challenge. Depends on storm track, strength and upper level dynamics too.
  11. Yeah, weenism is a minority club alright...
  12. Anyone know if Earthlight (John) has chimed in on this potential?
  13. Is the MJO projected to go to into phases 1-2 by then? How much is the pattern MJO driven currently?
  14. Even with low odds for next weekend, there is hope to ride on. I agree that for now, snow chances are more favorable deeper into Feb as climo and trends in recent years would dictate. Fingers crossed for everyone here.
  15. In other words a lot has to go right to make this work and very little has to go wrong to make this not work.
  16. With marginal temps, we will need a very dynamic and deep low in the right spot to generate its own cold air.
  17. Yes I saw that. That makes it very difficult for phasing to happen earlier in the East given the trough alignment, unless other factors kick in I guess. Even with a raging Pacific, how does the NAO going negative potentially compensate?
  18. I am curious how the ridge axis out west would sharpen better given the strong Pacific flow
  19. Not hanging my hat on any one solution so far out. I just look at these and say "OK". I will start paying much more attention come Wed and even then with cautious interpretation.
  20. Hanging hats on single model solutions never makes sense especially this far out, unless it is part of a clear trend, consensus. I look for Mets here who can give me a larger analysis of H5 evolution in conjunction with teles forecasts. Zooming out makes more sense at this stage. The windshield wiper effect of models this far out should be expected.
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