Admit it... You still feel that little tingling of excitement... You want to suppress it... You want to ignore it... But the weenie in you can't be denied...
It doesn't have to be super arctic cold to snow, just cold enough. This time of the year, we can do it with less than ideal cold air, but it is still a challenge. Depends on storm track, strength and upper level dynamics too.
Even with low odds for next weekend, there is hope to ride on. I agree that for now, snow chances are more favorable deeper into Feb as climo and trends in recent years would dictate. Fingers crossed for everyone here.
Yes I saw that. That makes it very difficult for phasing to happen earlier in the East given the trough alignment, unless other factors kick in I guess. Even with a raging Pacific, how does the NAO going negative potentially compensate?
Not hanging my hat on any one solution so far out. I just look at these and say "OK". I will start paying much more attention come Wed and even then with cautious interpretation.
Hanging hats on single model solutions never makes sense especially this far out, unless it is part of a clear trend, consensus. I look for Mets here who can give me a larger analysis of H5 evolution in conjunction with teles forecasts. Zooming out makes more sense at this stage. The windshield wiper effect of models this far out should be expected.