MillvilleWx

Your area is right within my forecast right now. Not a bust anywhere in the entire region as far as I can see. Maybe the MD line, but that's it. Sorry @psuhoffman

This has been a fun storm to follow and watch unfold. Glad many are waking up to some pretty good scenery and higher than forecast totals. I'm not going to do a grade on my forecast until everything shuts off. Upper level piece later on should make for some fluffy snow and high ratios as it pulls through. Models are back and forth on where the best axis of snow will setup, but my guess is somewhere near I-95, then pulling east. I think a low key spot to enjoy the upper level fun will be interior eastern shore. Good times though and multiple areas should get 8+ out this system. That was not even on most people's expectations 36 hours ago. Southern stream systems are fun. Should be a nice start to what will be a very active 8 weeks incoming. Enjoy y'all

BUT THE HRRR!!! /s .

Hey guys. Here's my updated snowfall totals. After getting up at 315am this morning, I'm dog tired and will not be doing a long post this go around. We all know what's been transpiring in terms of model guidance. I think I'm still hedging conservative in spots, but this is my final call for the storm. Now, here's a great storm for everyone in here. Enjoy!! I'll be watching from the sidelines in the Lone Star state. Snowfall Forecast by Zone: Zone 1: Havre de Grace: 1-4" Bel Air: 2-5" Baltimore County Hereford Zone: 3-6" Timonium/Towson/Western Baltimore County: 3-7" Eastern Baltimore County: 3-6" Baltimore City: 3-6" Northern Carroll: 4-9" with local highest along Parr's Ridge (Manchester/Westminster/Hampstead/Mt Airy) Southern Carroll: 4-8" Howard County: 4-8" Eastern Frederick County: 3-7" Northwest MoCo: 4-8" Zone 2: East of Bay including all MD/DE counties: 4-10" with highest totals across interior areas including Easton/Kent Co/Interior Sussex Co. 3-7" along the Atlantic shore AA County: 5-10" with max to the south South-Central MD counties, including PG Co: 5-11" Central and Southern MoCo: 5-10" NW DC: 5-10" SE DC: 6-12" Center City DC: 4-9" NoVa: 6-12" Frederick County: 4-10" with highest in Western Fdk Co and along South Mountain/Catoctins BWI: 5-10" IAD: 5-10" DCA: 4-8" Zone 3: Valley Areas with elevation below 1200': 5-10" Appalachians and Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 1200-2400': 8-14" Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 2400': 10-16" Zone 4: Shenandoah Valley areas: 7-12" Central Va: 8-13" with highest to the east Southern MD: 6-12" SBY to OC: 4-9" Richmond and Areas south of Dashed Line: 2-8" with highest to northwest of Richmond. Mixing issues possible south of dashed line.

Enjoy my man! Hope you get wrecked out there. Looks promising from everything I've seen along I-81 in VA

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I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything.

Can't not like the look. It's certainly looking to be a nice storm for many. Enjoy a good stout for me!

It's a little more than the previous run, but nothing eye popping by any means. The jet structure was a little better from hr 18 moving forward, but nothing that would scream a NAM like outcome. Still not bad. GFS isn't the model I would be following right now. Euro is probably the only global I would give credence to. ICON is hug worthy, but it's the ICON so..... lol

The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think?

Completely agree. I'm sitting on the sidelines out here in Texas, so I'll have my popcorn ready reading on here and watching web cams back home. I'll be back in less than a week for a vacation to see the family, so hopefully I get a nice storm in the future. Been boring as heck out here this winter.

Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall.

The deformation banding on that run was absurd. Even if 50% right on the total precip, that's a bonafide warning snowfall all the way to the border. I would not base any forecasts off that for the time being. But, if we see trends like that run continue, then maybe some triggers will be pulled. I'm with Wes, I would hate to be in Sterling's shoes right now.

The storm is about to happen, which means he's looking for the next one.

It's top 5 for the circumstance, but it has a long way to go before approaching the #1 status lol. 36-48 hours before Nemo in Feb 2013 in Boston, it had 55-60" near the metro. Nothing has come close haha

Cannot show the graphic because it's in house only, but WPC Super Ensemble has around 6" mean for snow at DCA for the event, which is right in line with a lot of numerical model guidance. When you remove the 3 highest and lowest outliers, it's right at 6" still, so the prospects for warning level snowfall is above average for the DC metro. IAD is running a mean of around 6.3" which is still in line with WSW criteria. BWI is at 5", so right on the borderline of WSW criteria, but longevity of snowfall to achieve the amount will likely place BWI on the outside looking in for an initial WSW, but will likely maintain advisory and adjust up if necessary. Other areas of interest and mean snowfall forecast are as followed: OKV: 6.4" MRB: 5.4" FDK: 5" HGR: 4.3" APG: 3.7" OPL: 7.3" EZF: 7.4" CHO: 7.2" SHD: 8.2" NHK: 6.3" SBY: 4.1" GED: 5.3"

Agreed! I know exactly where you're located. You might be right on that mix line, but sometimes you gotta smell the mix to get the heavy snow. It might be a bit pasty over there too, so it'll be a sweet landscape when all said and done.

Everyone in here ready for some snow? My parents live in Southern Sussex county in DE. My dad and I agree 2-4” in Millville is probably a good call with potential for more. Rt 50 probably the mix/snow dividing line. North of there should see 3-6” easy. .

I remember it like it was yesterday. I also remember not being able to play in it due to a severe ankle sprain I got 5 days before the storm. I watched it all unfold from the inside of my house. It was crazy watching all the news reports and hummers getting stuck in the snow. Great storm. Wish I could’ve went out in it more, but life happens .

Well, I broke the tie lol. Kind of surprised I never voted yet going this long. Any who, I voted for Feb 5-6, 2010 because it was incredible to follow for the days leading up and boy did it deliver. 32.5" later at my old home north of Baltimore. Most snow I ever saw until 2016. That storm was incredible in terms of impact. Feb 9-10 will always have a special place in my heart for the blizzard conditions occurring during the height with 40-50" base around my neighborhood. Not sure I'll ever see that much snow at once where I live ever again. Magical. 2016 might have been my biggest snowfall, but I was working during the event and really stressed out, so I didn't enjoy it as much as I would've liked. I'll certainly never forget it. As far as pure impact goes, Feb 2006 is not up there with the big guns, but with regards to impact on me, it was the storm that made my decision to become a meteorologist instead of going for a major in accounting. I was in HS deciding where to go to school, and that storm made me realize how much I wanted to become a meteorologist and forecast the weather, fulfilling my dream of working with the Weather Service. Now, here I am, 12 years later doing what I aspired. That storm, and it's 4.75"/hr rates, thunder and lightning, and measuring in shorts and snow boots will always be etched in my mind.

DCA: 11/19 BWI: 11/4 IAD: 11/3 RIC: 11/19 Tiebreaker: 5.25

Congrats all on an amazing storm. Big ups to Ray for cracking 30". Welcome to the club! I've witnessed it 4 times in my life with PDII, Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 2013 when I traveled to Waltham and Blizzard of 2016. Feb 2013 is one of my favorite storms of all time. Nobody messes with y'all's blizzards. Enjoy!

I know. Was just pointing out that precip anomaly wasn't rain. Not the same setup by any means.

I really do feel bad for you man. I've driven through the area, and I can see how you get that shadow effect.